I’m not sure if anyone is ready for a spicy, hot take on their baseball off day. Here goes. I think the Padres might be good. The Cubs have finished their six games with the Padres for the year, splitting them. They probably, without a whole lot of monumental luck, could have won as many as five of the games. And on the other side of that coin, could have lost that many. Such were the games between two strong teams that are playing good ball.

If you were a Cub, and your name wasn’t Ian Happ, then you were pretty much stifled all day long Wednesday. Other than Happ, the only good news offensively was the return of Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly to the lineup. So offensively at least, the Cubs have their full compliment back. It wasn’t enough. The Cubs just could not at any point in this series get their offense in gear.

The Padres pitching staff is no joke. While everyone was falling all over themselves to praise the best team that money can buy over in Los Angeles, the Padres have a very good team. If for any reason the Dodgers falter, the Padres are going to be there. Recall, the Padres gave the Dodgers a run in the postseason last year. The Padres are almost certainly a playoff team and if they are healthy, their pitching can probably be effective against the vaunted Dodgers offense. Heck, at 15-4, the Padres already need to only go 75-68 the rest of the way to win 90 games.

Alas, this isn’t a Padres appreciation space. So my last bit of appreciation is that if we see them again, it means we are facing them in the playoffs. I believe both teams will be there, but we have a whole lot of territory to cover between now and then.

As for Wednesday’s game, I’ll find solace that even with only six hits, the Cubs were only down a run into the eighth inning of this game. If at any point in time they could have mustered some offense, this one was there for the taking. I don’t think the offense all went cold simultaneously. I’m giving the majority of the credit to the Padre pitching staff. That said, we’ve seen a lot in recent years where the Cubs are essentially infected with a virus coming out of games like there. The hitting woes extend days, if not longer, after running into elite pitching. They’ll need to avoid that.

Somehow Craig Counsell apparently dubbed the next two weeks as the hardest of the season. I don’t know what that makes the last two weeks. But it certainly isn’t getting any easier. We all knew this gauntlet faced the team in the early going. Through the early going, the Cubs are 9-9 against the expected contenders and 3-0 against the non-contenders. That formula will work.

While it just wasn’t a weapon in San Diego, I’ll continue to look at pitch counts.

Pitch Counts:

• Cubs 160 (8 innings)
• Padres 124 (9 innings)

Running up pitch counts remains an effective weapon. The Padres offense deployed in this one wasn’t particularly fearsome. But long counts saw Matthew Boyd out of this game surely earlier than Counsell would have liked. After the bullpen helped steal one Tuesday, the “B” relievers were deployed. Daniel Palencia remains intriguing. Luke Little can’t hit the strike zone often enough for us to even dream on his ability.

Let’s find the three positives in this one and move on.

Three Stars:

1. Ian Happ had three hits. One of those was a double. I’m not even going to ding him for the caught stealing. The Cubs were looking for any kind of spark and just didn’t connect.
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong had a solo homer and a terrific road trip. He returns home with a .779 OPS. If he could sustain an OPS around that level, he will be a holy terror to the league.
3. I’m going to hat tip Jon Berti for the last spot. He drew only a walk, but has ably stepped into the third base position over the weekend. He’s not as gifted defensively as Matt Shaw, but made some good plays. I suspect Justin Turner will share some of the time over there at third, but Berti is definitely interesting with his speed.

Game 21, April 16: Padres 4, Cubs 2 (12-9)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ian Happ (.142). 3-4, 2B, CS
• Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.074). 1-3, HR, RBI, R
• Sidekick: Jon Berti (.049). 0-1, BB

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Kyle Tucker (-.181). 0-3, SF, RBI
• Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.151). 1-4, DP
• Kid: Michael Busch (-.114). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: Manny Machado batted with runners on first and second and two outs in the third inning of a tie game. He singled and gave the Padres a lead they never relinquished. (.131)

*Cubs Play of the Game: PCA’s solo homer leading off the eighth cut the deficit to one. (.116)

Cubs Player of the Game:

This poll is closed

183 votes total Vote Now

Yesterday’s Winner: Nico Hoerner received 162 of 242 votes

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

• Kyle Tucker +7
• Shōta Imanaga/Matthew Boyd +6
• Miguel Amaya/Jon Berti +5
• 2 players -3
• Ben Brown -5
• Nate Pearson -6
• Matt Shaw -7
• Dansby Swanson -9

Up Next: The Cubs return home to face the Diamondbacks. The D-Backs will be returning from Miami where they are playing the Marlins this afternoon. Heading into that game, they are 11-7. You may recall the Cubs took two out of three from Arizona during their first week of games after returning from Japan. A few more weeks remain on the Cubs season opening gauntlet.

In Friday afternoon’s opener, Colin Rea (0-0, 1.00, 9 IP) will get his second start for the Cubs. Hopefully, after his start in Los Angeles, he’s a bit more stretched out and, if effective, can pitch deeper into the game.

An interesting scheduling quirk that echoes back to starting the season in Japan, the Cubs are off today, off Monday and off next week Thursday. This allows Craig Counsell a few things. First, particularly if Rea gives them a little length, he can use his bullpen a little more aggressively than he otherwise could. Assuming they are all in decent health, all of them should be available to pitch twice in three days. Second, for the two-game set against Los Angeles and the subsequent series against the Phillies, he can re-order the rotation if he chooses to. A starter could be skipped, given an extra day or two, or the whole rotation can benefit from extra rest.

The D-Backs will start 30-year-old righty Corbin Burnes (0-1, 5.28, 15⅓ IP). The 2021 Cy Young award winner is off to a little bit of a rough start for his new team. His best start was last time out against his old team, allowing three runs over six innings against the Brewers. The start before, he allowed four runs in five innings in Washington. It’s way too early to draw too many inferences from the 2025 season, but Burnes has been significantly better at home.