2025 NBA Play-In Tournament predictions: Will Steph Curry, Warriors advance vs. Grizzlies?

The NBA’s play-in tournament is here! The fun begins Tuesday night with Magic-Hawks and Warriors-Grizzlies, with the winners advancing to the NBA playoffs as the No. 7 seeds in the East and West, respectively. The losers will play again Friday for the chance to earn their conference’s No. 8 seeds.

Wednesday’s matchups, meanwhile, will feature Bulls-Heat and Kings-Mavs in single-elimination games. The winners advance to Friday, the losers go home. How will it play out? Our NBA writers break down the matchups and make their predictions.

Ben Rohrbach: Magic. They split their season series, but Orlando is 2-1 when Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner take the floor against Atlanta. The would-be All-Stars (had they stayed healthy) are averaging a combined 61 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists opposite the Hawks, whose Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Dyson Daniels, can only try to stop one of them.

Dan Titus: Hawks. Atlanta’s speed, depth and play-in experience make them dangerous underdogs. With a 3-1 play-in record and Trae Young averaging 27 points and 9 assists per game in those contests, they’re battle-tested. Meanwhile, the Magic play too slow and are overly dependent on Banchero and Wagner to generate offense. In this do-or-die clash, give me the Hawks as a road dog.

Morten Stig Jensen: I’m leaning Hawks. They have more offensive firepower and a real lead guard who can dictate actions. Do we trust Banchero and Wagner to do that throughout a 48-minute game, especially with no Jalen Suggs to operate as a third initiator? Zaccharie Risacher might be in for one heck of a game. The 6-foot-9 wing has popped for 35+ twice since March 30, and with Atlanta playing freely, there’s a chance he can find early, and consistent, offense.

Tom Haberstroh: Magic. With margins this thin, give me the team with home-court advantage. This one might be dictated by how the referees manage the game. The Magic’s ultra-physical brand of basketball could be a benefit in the winner-take-all affair. We’ll see what kind of whistle Trae Young and Paolo Banchero get in Orlando.

Titus: Warriors. Memphis is 11-30 on the road and winless in California (0-8) this season. I don’t trust the Grizzlies’ newfound commitment to getting Ja Morant more touches in pick-and-roll actions because it plays into Golden State’s strength on defense: protecting the paint. Despite the Dubs’ recent late-game meltdowns and injuries, they have the coaching advantage with Playoff Jimmy, Steph Curry and a strong supporting cast to get it done.

Jensen: Warriors. Jimmy Butler proved to be a wonderful addition to the squad, allowing it to stagger him and Stephen Curry in regards to ball-handling and shot-creation duties. The Grizzlies are, well, weird. They’re inconsistent, their offense grew stagnant this season, and while I’m not closing the door on a Memphis win, it feels as though everything has to go right for them. Those are not great odds.

[How the play-in tournament works]

Haberstroh: Warriors. The Dubs flex the NBA’s sharpest defense since acquiring Jimmy Butler and should have the upper hand on the Grizzlies trying to find their identity in the post-Taylor Jenkins era. The Grizz have a 4-9 record on the road against top-10 defenses. I’ll take Steph, Draymond and Jimmy in this one.

Rohrbach: Warriors. Do not overthink this one. It might be tempting to pick Ja Morant’s Grizzlies, but they have not been able to beat winning teams or win on the road in some time. They have a new coach, whose first postseason task will be to stop both Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, two of the greatest winners of their generation, in a must-win game. Good luck.

Jensen: I’m inclined to ask, who cares? Both teams are about as mid as you can possibly be, and neither presents a real threat to Cleveland. That being said, we all like entertainment, and for that reason we should hope for the Bulls, who play a fast-paced, up-and-down brand of ball, which can be fun to watch. Miami is 28th in pace, and its style of play is hauntingly boring. But while it’s one thing to hope for the Bulls, given the potential of a fun, energetic first-round matchup against the Cavs — pending Chicago makes it through two games — logic dictates the Heat stand on stronger ground to take this one.

Haberstroh: Heat. Can they put up a banner if they three-peat in the Play-In Tournament? Hey, if Pat Riley retired Michael Jordan’s jersey in Miami’s arena, anything can happen. Momentum is on Miami’s side, as the Heat have quietly been good for the past few weeks, winning eight of their last 12. I see Davion Mitchell putting the clamps on Coby White.

Rohrbach: Bulls. Chicago has not just been good for a month now. The Bulls have been the second-best team in the East behind the Boston Celtics since March 6, owners of a top-10 outfit on both offense and defense. They run like hell, and Josh Giddey has been playing like an All-Star in that span. They try. Hard. That is their difference. And I am not sure Miami is in the same boat. Do not blame the Heat if they mail this one in. Jimmy Butler took a lot out of them.

Titus: Heat. The Bulls have won 13 of their last 16 and swept Miami 3-0 in the season series. Still, I’m siding with the Heat’s experience. Miami’s clean injury report will let the Heat lean into their physical style of play, disrupting the Bulls’ fast pace, driven by Giddey and White. Defensive efforts from Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Kel’el Ware, and Davion Mitchell will be the deciding factor to push the Heat forward.

Haberstroh: Mavs. If Anthony Davis is healthy, I’m going with that guy. He has a massive chip on his shoulder after Nico Harrison put him in the position to absorb all the coverage surrounding the Luka Dončić trade. Basketball-wise, I still worry about the Kings’ ability to protect the rim against elite bigs.

Titus: Kings. The Mavs are 6-3 with Anthony Davis in the lineup. However, their lack of offensive firepower leaves them outmatched. The Mavs are dead last in made and attempted 3s by a wide margin over the last 15 games. And shockingly, the Kings have been in the top 10 in fewest points allowed in the paint over that span. The Kings boast ample scoring options on the wing and the tools to “light the beam” and secure the win against a depleted Dallas squad. Just don’t expect too much defense in this game.

[2025 NBA Playoffs: Schedule and matchups]

Jensen: Hide your eyes, kids. The Mavericks will be running the offense through Naji Marshall instead of a certain All-NBA guard, who shall remain nameless. Look, things are bad in Dallas, and there’s really no cohesion on the floor. Things aren’t much better in Sacramento, but the Kings do have Zach LaVine, who we know can pop for 40-plus on any given night. The shooting guard is having the most efficient year of his career, and with Domantas Sabonis setting him mean screens, I’m leaning the Kings in this one. The Basketball Gods wouldn’t dare give us Playoff Mavericks, would they?

Rohrbach: Kings. This has been a season from hell for the Mavericks. They traded Luka Dončić, and their fans will not stop reminding them of what a mistake it was, calling loudly for the firing of general manager Nico Harrison. Kyrie Irving’s injury did not help matters. Anthony Davis is the best player in this game but not if he already has vacation plans. And who could blame him? Meanwhile, Sacramento would be happy to be a playoff team, considering the franchise history.

Haberstroh: The Mavericks beat the Grizzlies to snag the final spot and set up a rematch against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Without Kyrie Irving, I think it’s a sweep in OKC’s favor this time around, but the Mavs will first dish out a two-game sweep to get the privilege of getting walloped by OKC.

Titus: Dyson Daniels breaks Kent Bazemore’s record of five steals in a play-in game.

Jensen: Ja Morant dunks on Kevon Looney so hard, he is subbed out immediately because Steve Kerr wants to make sure his center doesn’t quit basketball right there and then.

Rohrbach: Ja Morant goes medieval and unveils a new trebuchet celebration. The Mavericks play like Harrison’s job is on the line and lose by 30. Giddey logs a triple-double, only the stats do not count, so we are left to wonder if it ever happened. And Banchero drops 40 on Atlanta.

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2025 NBA Play-In Tournament predictions: Will Steph Curry, Warriors advance vs. Grizzlies?

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