For weeks before the 2022 NFL Draft, Aidan Hutchinson seemed to be a lock to go with the first overall pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Then the betting world tipped off everyone else that Travon Walker would be the Jaguars’ pick. The odds shifted in a big way from Hutchinson to Walker a few days before the draft. Walker ended up being the top pick (though the Jaguars probably should have picked Hutchinson after all).
It doesn’t seem like there will be any last-minute drama like that with the first few picks of this year’s NFL Draft.
Advertisement
Advertisement
The odds on the first few picks, and most of the first 10 picks, seem to be fairly well set. There was some drama earlier this month when Travis Hunter took over as the favorite to go second overall, but it doesn’t seem we’ll get any more big changes like that. But with the draft, you never know.
Based on the odds from BetMGM, here is a mock draft of the top 10 picks, selecting the favorite at each slot:
It’s surprising the odds for the first pick are still on the board. Ward is -10000, a massive favorite. Unless someone is willing to bet $10,000 to win $100, there’s no reason to even keep it up. Ward will be the first overall pick, barring one of the biggest surprises in draft history. There has been no indication for months that the Titans plan to do anything but draft Ward.
For a long time Abdul Carter was the favorite to go second overall, but when it flipped to Hunter it completely flipped. Now Hunter is a big -1000 favorite to go second. As Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson pointed out on the “Inside Coverage” podcast, once a general manager compares a player to Shohei Ohtani, he is a good bet to draft him.
Travis Hunter is a big favorite to go with the second pick of the NFL Draft. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
(John E. Moore III via Getty Images)
If Ward and Hunter are off the board, Carter is the obvious pick at No. 3 (note that BetMGM’s odds are for a player going in a specific spot; if the Giants trade the pick and Carter is still selected third, the bet cashes). The Giants are strong on the defensive line but there’s no need for them to get tricky. Carter is a -650 favorite.
The betting market seems to believe it has the first four picks down cold. Campbell is a huge -650 favorite to go fourth. The LSU offensive tackle is a good fit for need. The Patriots have to get serious about protecting Drake Maye. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Patriots go with defensive tackle Mason Graham or offensive tackle Armand Membou at No. 4, but Campbell is the pick based on the strong odds.
This pick is when the draft market starts to get unsure. Graham is the favorite and minus odds to go fifth, but it’s just -125. The Jaguars could go in multiple directions here. Their pick could be Graham, or a pass rusher like Jalon Walker, cornerback such as Will Johnson or Jahdae Barron, maybe even running back Ashton Jeanty or a trade down. Graham will be the popular pick in mock drafts, but it’s nowhere near a lock.
(Yahoo Sports)
Jeanty to the Raiders is no epiphany. That pairing has been the common thought for weeks. The odds reflect that. Jeanty is a -120 favorite to go with the sixth pick. Will the Raiders, with plenty of other needs and nowhere near competing for an AFC West title, go with a running back with the sixth pick? The betting market believes so. Even if the Raiders trade with a team that wants to pick Jeanty, those bets on Jeanty going sixth overall will still win.
Last year, many mock drafts had the Jets taking Brock Bowers. They took offensive tackle Olu Fashanu instead and Bowers had probably the greatest rookie season any tight end has ever had. Will that affect New York’s thinking when deciding between a tackle like Membou and a tight end like Tyler Warren this year? If the Jets go with Membou, who is +125 to go seventh, it’ll fill a need.
The Panthers need everything on defense. A trade down would make sense, but that also requires finding a team that wants to trade up. Taking Walker would be a fine option for Carolina. He’s +145 to be the eighth overall pick.
The betting market’s confidence in Sanders going ninth overall has waned. Sanders at No. 9 moved up to +175. That might be because there are plenty of reasons to believe the Saints actually prefer Jaxson Dart (+600 to go No. 9). It’s not like the Saints are going to announce to the world which quarterback they like. For now the odds indicate Sanders will be the pick. Stay tuned.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Jeanty had been the favorite to go here. That changed over the weekend, and the new favorite to go 10th is do-everything Warren at +350. There has been a growing debate whether Warren should be TE1 in the class over Colston Loveland, who is 16-to-1 to go with the 10th pick. There are 11 players at 22-to-1 odds or shorter and the favorite is +350, which indicates nobody has any good idea what the Bears will do. That could be true for most picks in the first round, beyond the top few.
