Two teams are left standing in the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament, and today’s clash between the two is fascinating from several angles.
Both No. 8 Florida and No. 4 Tennessee — who split two matchups in the regular season — are among the favorites to reach the Final Four in San Antonio a few weeks from now.
But first, they meet in a must-see battle in the SEC Championship Game today at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
The lines opened at Florida -4.5 at most sportsbooks, but the Gators (29-4, 14-4 SEC) are now favored by 5.5 points across the board over the Volunteers (27-6, 12-6 SEC).
How to Watch Tennessee vs. Florida
Tennessee vs. Florida Odds: Spread, ML, Total
DKFDbet365TENN spread+5.5 (-105)+5.5 (-115)+5.5 (-110)FLA spread-5.5 (-115)-5.5 (-105)-5.5 (-110)TENN ML+215+176+195FLA ML-265-215-240Total144.5 (o-105; u-115)143.5 (o-110; u-110)143.5 (o-110; u-110)
Best Player Prop Bets for Vols vs. Gators
Alex Condon o7.5 Rebounds (-110 at bet365) — 1 unit
Florida and Tennessee are two of the deepest teams in the country. That’s a big reason they’re No. 8 and No. 4 in the country, respectively, but it makes it difficult to pinpoint the best player prop bets for either of these teams.
One player who consistently puts up numbers for Florida, even when he plays less than 30 minutes, is 6-foot-11 sophomore F Alex Condon. He has recorded at least eight boards in 20 of 29 games where he got a normal workload (excluding his one-minute cameo vs. Mississippi State on Feb. 11).
His athleticism makes him a menace on the boards, hence his average of 7.9 rebounds per game while playing an average of just 25 minutes per night.
Condon grabbed just four rebounds in what became a romp over Alabama yesterday, but in the four games prior to that, he pulled down 42 total rebounds (10.5 per game). What makes Condon so tempting here is that he’s a force on both the offensive and defensive glass, with an impressive average of three offensive rebounds per contest.
He finished with just five boards in 22 minutes in the second meeting between these teams, an ugly 64-44 loss in Knoxville on Feb. 1. But he had 12 rebounds (including five offensive) in 26 minutes in the Gators’ 73-43 home win over the Vols on January 7.
Condon recorded at least 10 rebounds on 10 different occasions this year (including in big games against Tenn., Kentucky, Auburn and Alabama). With that in mind, there’s good reason to place a small bet on Condon to grab 10 rebounds this afternoon, as this should be a close game that sees him log more minutes than usual.
In fact, in seven games this year when he played at least 30 minutes, Condon averaged just over 9 rebounds per game, with 10 or more in four of those contests.
- Bonus bet: Alex Condon 10+ rebounds (+280 at bet365) — 0.5 units
Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction, Best Bets
Let’s start with the obvious: betting against Florida feels like a horrible idea right now.
Period.
The hype around the Gators is mounting by the minute, and they will be a trendy Final Four and national title pick, even if they lose this matchup.
Having given out Florida as the best bet to win the SEC Tournament before it started, I’m proud to say I’ve been on board the Gators bandwagon for a full week now.
But let’s not rule out an upset by Tennessee today. The Vols not only beat Florida once this year in dominant fashion on Feb. 1, but did so without First-Team All-SEC guard Zakai Zeigler.
That, combined with Tennessee’s outstanding recent play in the clutch, makes the Vols a live dog in front of what should be a pro-UT crowd in Nashville. And obviously, if coach Rick Barnes’ team can replicate its dominance of the free-throw battle in yesterday’s win over Auburn (the Vols went 25-of-27 from the stripe, while the Tigers went just 13-for-22), Tennessee could absolutely win this one.
Ultimately, though, I expect the depth and balance of the Gators to make the difference.
Florida led by just two points at halftime yesterday in its semifinal matchup vs. Alabama, but ran away from the Tide down the stretch, winning 104-82.
I think this one will be much closer than that in the final minutes, and I actually like defensively stout Tennesse on the first-half spread (related: the Vols are awfully tempting on the first-half moneyline at +175 at bet365).
That being said, I still believe Florida will end up prevailing, and covering.
Tennessee vs. Florida Best Bets
- Florida -5.5 (-105 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
- Tennessee First Half +3.5 (-110 at bet365) — 0.5 units
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