It’s hard to argue with anybody that likes Draper to win this match. This is more or less a 50-50 matchup. However, that in itself suggests Rune is the right play. Getting close to +140 odds on a coin flip of a match is the dream. And honestly, if I was lining this match, I’d probably have Rune as something like a -120 favorite.

Draper’s win over Alcaraz was the biggest win of his career, meaning there’s some letdown potential here — even though the Brit is going for the first 1000-level title of his career. It’ll be interesting to see what type of focus he comes to the court with. Meanwhile, Rune has already won a 1000-level title and knows exactly the type of effort it takes to get across the finish line.

It also should be noted that Alcaraz did Draper a lot of favors in their semifinal. Draper deserves a ton of credit for taking advantage of the openings Alcaraz presented, but the Brit was definitely fortunate to be on the right side of a weak performance from the Spaniard. I commented on the tactical match-up quite a bit on X, but Alcaraz simply wasn’t finding the court for the first half hour of the match. He was ripping shots into the net, hitting them long and missing them wide, essentially going everywhere but in the court. It wasn’t until the second set that Alcaraz realized that hitting with more shape, and hitting with depth, was his best path to victory. Then, in the third set, we saw Alcaraz get cute with some poorly-timed drop shots, and he also tested Draper’s elite backhand a little too much for my liking. I’m not sure Rune will do Draper as many solids.

Read more: Carlos Alcaraz: First set vs. Jack Draper in Indian Wells ‘one of the worst’ he’s ever played