The Timberwolves are huge 13.5-point favorites against the tanking Jazz, and our NBA picks expect them to handle business at home.
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Mar 16, 2025 • 12:42 ET • 4 min read
The Minnesota Timberwolves are on a mission to climb into a true playoff spot and out of playing in the NBA Play-In Tournament, and today’s meal is the lowly Utah Jazz, losers of eight straight.
Minnesota has been on the opposite trajectory with seven straight wins. While its last loss came at the hands of Utah, my Jazz vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks expect Anthony Edwards & Co. can get some redemption tonight.
Jazz vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet: Timberwolves -13.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Lets be honest, Utah Jazz fans don’t want to win this game. The best case scenario for Utah would be to lose out and ensure they’re among the teams with the best chance at winning the NBA Draft lottery.
Currently, Danny Ainge has this lousy team with the worst winning percentage in the league (22.4%) and as a result, it has the best shot at earning the No. 1 overall pick (14%). That means a chance at drafting Duke star Cooper Flagg and completely changing the franchise’s fortunes.
So while Utah’s last win did come against Minnesota, it’s hard to imagine a team with nothing to win for bringing a ton of energy on the road against a team scratching and clawing its way up the Western Conference standings.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered in five of their last seven, and have a defense built to shut down the Jazz. Chris Finch’s team sits seventh in defensive rating (111.5), sixth in points allowed (109.0), and is allowing the third-lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA (34.8%).
Meanwhile, all Utah wants to do is pull from behind the arc. The Jazz are ninth in the league in 3-point attempts per game (39.1), but just 21st in offensive rating (112.1), 20th in field goal percentage (45.8%), and 23rd in made 2-pointers (26.5).
So if Minnesota’s perimeter defense can slow down Lauri Markkanen, the Wolves will be in good shape. Utah’s also down Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, and Keyonte George — that’s three of the team’s Top 5 scorers.
Utah just won’t have the firepower to keep up with a Minnesota team that’s 10th in offensive rating (115.5), fifth in made 3-pointers per game (15.2), and has a scorer in Edwards capable of taking over games.
The Jazz have one of the league’s worst defenses, sitting 28th in points allowed (119.9) and 29th in defensive rating (119.3) while giving up the most 3-pointers per game (14.8). Will Hardy’s team has allowed 122+ points in five of its last seven games and 34 of 67 this season.
When Minnesota played Utah in January, the Timberwolves won 138-113. Expect a similar outcome tonight.
Jazz vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Timberwolves -13.5Anthony Edwards Over 37.5 points + rebounds + assists
Lauri Markkanen Under 22.5 points + rebounds
Edwards can’t be stopped lately. In January and February he averaged over 30 points per game, and on the season, he’s up to a combined 37.7 points + rebounds + assists per game.
The last time he played Utah, he popped off for 36 points, 11 assists, and six rebounds, and he should put on a show again. The Jazz are allowing the third-most ppg (23.66), rpg (6.8), and apg (5.64) to shooting guards this season.
As for Markkanen, he won’t have nearly as much ease scoring against Minnesota. The Wolves allow the sixth-fewest ppg (21.42) and eighth-fewest rpg (9.9) to power forwards, and Markkanen has gone for Under 22.5 points + rebounds in both his games since returning from injury.
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Jazz vs Timberwolves odds
Jazz vs Timberwolves live odds
Jazz vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Utah +13 | Minnesota +13
- Moneyline: Utah +600 | Minnesota -900
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Jazz vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 13-point home favorite, with the line moving another half point in the Timberwolves’ direction as tip approaches.
- Despite the Jazz’s struggles this season, they’re a respectable 36-31 ATS while the Timberwolves are just 31-36-1.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 231.5 with most books steadily seeing it rise to 233.5, partly due to Utah’s defensive struggles.
- Utah is among the best Over bets in the NBA at 39-27-1 and Minnesota isn’t far behind at 37-31.
Jazz vs Timberwolves trend
The Timberwolves have cashed the moneyline in nine of their last 13 games (+10.40 units / 32% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Jazz vs Timberwolves
Location Target Center, Minneapolis, MN Date Sunday, 3-16-2025 Tip-off 7:00 p.m. ET TV KJZZ, FDSN-North
Jazz vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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