The top players in the world are in Madrid for a pair of 1000-level events this week, as it’s time for the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open. I’ll be posting daily articles with my best bets for the action at the Caja Magica, so come back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on some tennis. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription! It’s only $59 to get access to everything until August 1st!
With all of that in mind, check out my Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Wednesday, April 30th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
I have been incredibly impressed with Tiafoe lately. I started the clay-court season looking to fade him, as he’s relatively unproven on the surface and you never quite know where his motivation level is. But in the end, I ended up changing my tune, and I even backed him against Alexandre Muller, a player I like quite a bit, on Tuesday. The problem is that Tiafoe is now running into a player that has a better game for the dirt.
Tiafoe is just 40-43 on clay in his career, and that record is boosted by his success on the green clay in Houston. That surface is nothing like the one in Madrid. Meanwhile, Arnaldi is 20-17 on clay in his career. The Italian has also looked great in Madrid so far. Arnaldi beat Novak Djokovic in straight sets, and he followed it up with an easy win over Damir Dzumhur, who is a solid clay-court player.
Realistically, I just view both of these guys as all-court players, but I like Arnaldi’s ability to construct points a little better. I also like the shape he plays with from the forehand side. We have seen that a heavy topspin forehand can do a lot of damage on these courts. Tiafoe doesn’t get the same jump on his forehand.
As long as Arnaldi just has a decent day serving here, I’d be surprised if he can’t find a way to get through to the quarterfinals. Tiafoe beat Arnaldi in five sets at Wimbledon last year, but that was a match in which the Italian won the first two sets and ran out of gas. That won’t happen in a best-of-three match, and he should have the slight edge on his preferred surface.
Pick: Arnaldi ML (-132 – 1.5 units)
Few matchups in tennis are as exciting on paper as Andreeva versus Gauff. Andreeva, who won back-to-back WTA 1000 titles in Dubai and Indian Wells not too long ago, comes in with serious momentum and has yet to drop a set in Madrid. Gauff, meanwhile, has looked sharp since arriving in Spain, winning six straight sets and serving well after an early hiccup against Dayana Yastremska. Still, Gauff’s serve and forehand remain question marks, and her double fault percentage is a lingering concern that could surface under pressure.
Andreeva’s recent form is impressive. Her serve, once a liability, is now a weapon, and her baseline consistency makes her a tough matchup for anyone, especially Gauff, whose forehand can falter in long rallies. While Gauff leads their head-to-head 2-0, those wins came before Andreeva became a force on the WTA Tour.
While Gauff is always dangerous, this feels like Andreeva’s moment to claim her first win in what should be an incredible rivalry.
Pick: Andreeva ML (-122 – 2 units)
Look, Svitolina is scorching hot right now. Including two Billie Jean King Cup victories in April, the Ukrainian has now won 10 consecutive matches. One of those was a beatdown of Elena Rybakina in the Round of 32 here. Svitolina is serving well and returning even better. She’s also playing some flawless tennis from the baseline. However, it is hard to ignore that Svitolina has played a lot of tennis over the last three weeks. At some point, that should catch up to her — whether that manifests itself in physical or mental fatigue. Well, I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens here, as Uchijima has also been remarkable lately.
Uchijima comes into this match after having won eight of her last nine, and she has picked up straight-set victories over Jessica Pegula and Ekaterina Alexandrova in her last two matches. She’s not just beating scrubs. Uchijima’s game is just difficult to prepare for. She spreads the ball all around the court, can hit some impressive angles and she has the ability to go really big when she sees opportunities — especially from the forehand side. That said, she’s going to try and move Svitolina around and extract errors out of her. And Uchijima is a fighter too, so she’s not going to go away if she goes down a break.
I understand Svitolina being viewed as a clear favorite here. She has looked unbeatable lately. But so has Uchijima. That makes the pricing on this match look disrespectful to the rising Japanese star.
Pick: Uchijima +1.5 Sets (+110 – 1.5 units) & Uchijima ML (+310 – 0.5 units)
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
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