Right to it, then! Marquette enters this matchup as the slight favorite, but they’ll have to weather the chaos Rick Pitino’s New Mexico Lobos are likely to create. And they’re poised to do so: The Golden Eagles are experts at maximizing possessions, ranking in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive turnover rates, a feat only matched by last year’s Jamal-Shead-led Houston Cougars team. It’s a seven-versus-ten-seed matchup, and it’s a hotbed for action. I’ve got a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness first round college basketball game between Baylor and Mississippi State.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Let’s start with this Cougar-esque Golden Eagles squad. Marquette’s defense revolves around Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross, who form a lockdown perimeter duo. Shaka Smart’s ball pressure fuels their success. However, the Golden Eagles struggle to protect the rim, allowing opponents to shoot 52% on two-pointers. They also rank just 32% from three. When shooters aren’t hitting, space for Kam Jones (18.7 PPG, 4.2 APG) to operate shrinks. Jones was playing like a First Team All-American earlier this season, but he has cooled in Big East play. Opponents have adjusted, and his performance has dipped. For Marquette to make a tournament run, David Joplin and Chase Ross must play better. In their 2024-2025 conference tournament, Marquette shot just 31.7% from three. Perimeter vulnerability is a real concern.
New Mexico, led by Richard Pitino, thrives on creating chaos with their frenetic pace. They rank in the top five for adjusted tempo. The Lobos force turnovers on 20.4% of opponent possessions, fueling their transition-heavy offense. Their frontcourt of Nelly Junior Joseph (14.2 PPG, 9.4 RPG), Mustapha Amzil, and Filip Borovicanin is tough to score on in the paint. However, New Mexico has struggled offensively, ranking outside the top 140 in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging just 1.095 points per possession. They rely on transition, but they hit just 25.8% of their points from three. Their free-throw struggles (under 70%) hurt in tight games. In the Mountain West Tournament, New Mexico grabbed 12.1 offensive boards per game. However, their shooting issues (33.9% from three) remain a major concern heading into the tournament.
While New Mexico can make things uncomfortable with their transition game and defensive pressure, Marquette’s superior talent, led by Jones, should prove to be too much. The Golden Eagles will need to capitalize on their defensive turnover rate (seventh nationally, 21.1% forced) and find better shooting from beyond the arc (31.7% in the Big East Tournament), but their solid guard play and efficient offensive rebounding (9.3 offensive boards per game in the Big East Tournament) will give them the edge. New Mexico’s inability to consistently execute on offense (ranking No. 140 in adjusted offensive efficiency, 1.095 points per possession in the last 30 days of regular season) and their free-throw struggles (under 70% on the season) will ultimately prevent them from keeping pace with Marquette.
The Golden Eagles’ combination of superior guard play, defensive efficiency (No. 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 94.2 points per 100 possessions), and offensive rebounding (8.5 offensive boards per game on the season) will be enough to weather New Mexico’s high-tempo pressure. While the Lobos can certainly create havoc, Marquette’s balanced attack and playoff-tested players will carry them to a comfortable victory.
At -3.5, I’m taking Marquette.
Tail the Golden Eagles to cover against a pesky Lobos team (who I quite like!) in R64 with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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