Wayne Gretzky’s NHL record of 894 goals once seemed to be an untouchable, unbreakable milestone. Gretzky scored 93 more goals than previous leader Gordie Howe and appeared to have a solid hold on both the points and goals records.
Decades later, during an increasingly inevitable assault on the record book, Alex Ovechkin is bearing down on that mark with a scoring style vastly different from Gretzky’s. While Gretzky dominated with vision, playmaking and hockey IQ, Ovechkin’s game is built on raw power, an unstoppable shot and remarkable longevity. Whose career was more dominant? Your answer could be influenced by myriad factors, but after adjusting for era, rule changes and competition, it should be clear that Ovechkin established himself as the greatest goal scorer hockey has ever seen — and did so well before closing in on the Great One’s record.
Ovechkin’s pursuit of Gretzky’s goals record has been built not only on his prolific scoring ability but also his extraordinary longevity. Unlike most hockey players — and even legends such as Gretzky, whose performance eventually waned — Ovechkin has managed to stay healthy and consistently deliver elite performance into his late 30s. His sustained excellence not only made possible his record scoring pace but also set a new standard for durability.
Ovechkin has scored 417 goals (and counting) since turning 30, more than double Gretzky’s production and 26 more goals than Phil Esposito, who has the second-most goals of any player in his 30s.
Of course, they went about their craft in very different ways. Gretzky was a goal-scoring machine at all strengths and even tallied 73 shorthanded goals. Ovechkin is a menace on the power play, often scoring with his patented one-timer in the left faceoff circle, known as his “office.”
Ovechkin’s sustained excellence stands out when you compare the eras each scorer played in, too. The NHL during Gretzky’s time emphasized creative play and finesse, with fewer physical demands and simpler defensive systems that allowed players to exploit open ice with visionary passing and clever positioning. In contrast, today’s players are expected to blend skill with stamina and strength, adapting to complex strategies and relentless pace. Without putting too fine of a point on it, it was easier to score when Gretzky was in the NHL.
Gretzky entered the NHL in the 1979-80 season, when teams averaged 3.5 goals per game. During his 20-year career, teams’ scoring output reached a peak average of four goals per game, the highest in the NHL since it expanded beyond its Original Six franchises. Ovechkin, on the other hand, played in years when teams’ scoring rate oscillated between 2.7 and 3.1 goals per game. In total, when Gretzky was playing, the NHL’s scoring rate averaged 3.5 goals per team per game, and during Ovechkin’s tenure it dropped to 2.9. That works out to almost 50 fewer goals per team during an 82-game season.
If we could somehow transport Gretzky and have him begin his NHL career alongside Ovechkin, it’s not inconceivable that the Great One would never have set the mark that Ovechkin is about to break. Barring time travel, we can make estimates for each player if they played in similar league environments, with an 82-game schedule, a maximum roster size of 18 skaters and averages of six goals per game.
To determine who could take the baton from Ovechkin as the league’s goal-scoring king, we can employ a projection system known as the favorite toy, a formula created by baseball analyst Bill James that attempts to calculate the probability a player achieves a cumulative statistical goal. It factors in how many more of a given stat the player needs, how many seasons they’re likely to have left — based loosely on their age — and what their typical performance has been in recent years. Using these inputs, the method projects how much more the player is likely to produce over the rest of his career, and compares that to the target.
They’re all long shots, but here are the leading active candidates to score at least 895 career NHL goals (all stats through Wednesday).
Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers
29 years old | 399 career goals | 16 percent chance
Draisaitl pairs elite scoring ability with remarkable consistency, making him the biggest threat to surpass the all-time goal record. Playing alongside center Connor McDavid gives him a steady stream of high-quality chances, and his durability plus physical style suggest he can sustain production deep into his 30s. If he maintains his 40-goals-a-season pace and avoids major injuries, Draisaitl could quietly rack up historic numbers.
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs
27 years old | 397 career goals | 15 percent chance
He might be the most natural goal scorer in the NHL. With a quick release, elite accuracy and a relentless shooting mentality, he already amassed multiple 60-goal seasons. Still in his prime and playing in a high-powered Toronto offense, Matthews has a head start many goal-chasers never enjoyed.
David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
28 years old | 385 career goals | 11 percent chance
His combination of flair, precision and volume makes him one of the league’s most dangerous finishers. A consistent 40-goal scorer with the ability to tally in bunches, Pastrnak has already established himself as Boston’s offensive engine. With no signs of slowing down and a scoring style that should age well, he has a chance to chip away at Ovechkin’s mark year after year.
Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning
29 years old | 302 career goals | 2 percent chance
Point flies under the radar compared to the league’s flashier stars, but his production speaks volumes. He scored 97 goals the past two seasons despite Tampa Bay’s offense spreading the wealth and he thrives in high-leverage moments. Point’s hockey IQ and slick finishing give him long-term potential, especially if he stays on Tampa’s top line. With continued health and opportunity he could be a dark-horse contender to rewrite the record books.
