The Italian currently ranks 11th on the ATP Tour in clay-court Elo rating, and his number (1901.6) is significantly higher than de Minaur’s (1845.5). And if you look at recent form, Musetti’s 11-6 record on clay over the last 52 weeks is a bit better than de Minaur’s 7-4 record. The Italian also owns a much higher hold percentage on the dirt—80.9% compared to de Minaur’s 76.1% over the last 365 days.

Of course, it’s worth noting that de Minaur now has the highest clay-court break percentage (37.4%) of anybody on tour over the last 52 weeks. That number is obviously inflated by Friday’s 6-0, 6-0 win, but it still shows how dangerous he’s been on return this week.

That said, I’ll take Musetti returning against the de Minaur serve over the other way around all day. I also think Musetti is a little more dangerous from the baseline. He has more life on his forehand, and his backhand is a weapon when he has time to set up and rip it.

The only thing I’m a little worried about is fatigue. Musetti has spent more time on court than de Minaur this week, and the Aussie is going to have a huge advantage in the rest department. But this is a best-of-three tournament, not a five-set grind, and I’m hoping that’ll give Musetti enough time to recover. If he’s even reasonably fresh, I think this is tremendous value on a guy that’s simply the better clay-court player.

Pick: Musetti ML (+125)