Two of the hottest teams with very contrasting styles get together Friday evening in the Big 12 semifinals. BYU has won 9 games in a row, while Houston has won 11 straight and 24 of their last 25 games.

This is a rematch of a January 4 game in Houston, where Houston took BYU to the woodshed in a 86-55 beatdown. BYU is a much different team than that one over two months ago, but Houston is a virtual lock to be a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. A win for BYU would give real talk to a 4 or 5 seed.

A main storyline is the health of Houston big man J’Wan Roberts, the heart and soul of the team and First-Team All Big 12 player. Roberts rolled is ankle early in the second half and didn’t return. Roberts said post game he could have returned, but acknowledged they want to be cautious with the NCAA Tournament just one week away and Houston already locked into a 1 seed.

BYU and Houston by the Numbers

Houston KenPom: 3

NET: 3

AP Rank: 2

Record: 28-4 (19-1 Big 12)

Notable Wins: 19 Big 12 wins

Losses: Auburn (N), Alabama (N), San Diego State (N), Texas Tech (H)

BYU KenPom: 23

NET: 26

AP Rank: 17

Record: 24-8 (14-6 Big 12)

Notable Wins: NC State (N), Wyoming (N), Arizona State (H/A), Oklahoma State (H), Colorado (A), Cincinnati (H), Baylor (H), UCF (A), West Virginia (A), Kansas State (H), Kansas (H), Arizona (A), West Virginia (H), Iowa State (A/N), Utah (H)

Losses: Ole Miss (N), Providence (A), Houston (A), Texas Tech (H), TCU (A), Utah (A), Arizona (H), Cincinnati (A)

KenPom Prediction: Houston 73, BYU 66 — Houston 75% win probability

Spread: Houston -7.5

Point Total: 135.5

Houston Overview

BYU is #2 in Big 12 play in three-point percentage, behind only Houston. The Coogs in red shoot 38.6% from three in Big 12 play behind the guard trio of LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan, and Emmanuel Sharp who all average double-digits and shoot over 40% from distance.

BYU and Houston hunt for threes in very different ways — nearly half of BYU’s three-point attempts are from distance while just 33% of Houston’s shots in conference play are from three, second lowest in the Big 12. Houston plays at the slowest tempo in the Big 12 and is bottom five nationally in tempo. Offensive rebounding is a pillar of Houston’s program, and Houston is first in Big 12 play in offensive rebound percentage, rebounding 36% of their misses.

Defensively is where Houston really makes its mark. The Coogs rank third nationally in KenPom defensive efficiency and are at the top of the conference in just about every defensive category. They are 13th nationally in defensive turnover percentage — forcing turnovers on 22% of possessions — and fifth nationally in defensive effective field goal percentage. One metric where are middle of the pack is defensive 3-point percentage. Opponents shoot 33% from distance in Big 12 play, which is 9th in the league.

No J’Wan Roberts would certainly be a blow, but Houston is still elite even without Roberts. Their aforementioned guard trio can all score and starting center Joseph Tugler is the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. Houston mainly plays 8 guys, which would shrink if Roberts is unavailable.

Prediction

This is a huge opportunity for BYU. It is a litmus test to see how BYU competes against one of the best teams in the country and a national title favorite, and a win could push BYU up another seed line.

Two keys for BYU will be limiting turnovers and rebounding on the defensive glass. Houston gives up a lot of three-point attempts, partly due to the fact that opponents have to settle for bad shots, but BYU can get good looks if they can beat Houston’s pressure off of ball screen traps and doubles in the post. Keba Keita had only 1 rebound in 20 minutes in the first matchup versus Houston, and BYU will need him to be strong on the glass if they want a chance to pull the upset.

I am fascinated to watch this game. Both teams have completely different philosophies — BYU wants to spread the floor and snap the ball around to find open shooters, while Houston wants to play a slow, physical game and bully BYU.

I think BYU will play Houston tough. Houston has been winning, but they haven’t been blowing teams out as of late. Their last wins have been by single digits, and 16 seed Colorado was fairly competitive in Thursday’s quarterfinal.

Ultimately, I think Houston has enough shooters on offense to give BYU trouble and their defense anchored by Joseph Tugler is the best BYU will see all season. I’ll side with Houston in a close game that they pull out late.

Prediction: Houston 77, BYU 74

*Record Straight Up: 24-8

*Record Against the Spread: 17-15

* I’ll make a prediction for every game and track my record through the season