It wasn’t to be for our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon last week, as just one of his three tips landed for Matchday 27 in La Liga.
However, he’s back again this week with his Football Betting Tips for Matchday 28. You can find his reasoning below….
- Girona vs Valencia – Both teams to score – yes @ 10/11
- Sevilla vs Athletic Club – Sevilla to win (draw no bet) @ 1/1
- Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano to win @ 6/4
*odds correct at the time of publishing
Girona vs Valencia – Both teams to score – yes @ 10/11
Despite considerable problems off the pitch over the past decade, it would still be a huge shock to see fallen giants Valencia relegated to the Segunda Division. That remains a very possible outcome, but things are looking better for Los Che now after a bright start to life under former West Brom boss Carlos Corberan.
The 41-year-old swapped the West Midlands for Mestalla on Christmas Eve, and his arrival has sparked some life into a young team that was in real trouble at the turn of the year.
Los Che have only lost three of their 10 league games under Corberán so far, with all of those defeats against top-three opponents. They’ve picked up 17 points from seven matches against everyone else, a run that finally saw Valencia climb out of the relegation zone last weekend when they defeated Real Valladolid 2-1.
An increased attacking threat has been key to that improvement. Striker Umar Sadiq arrived on loan from Real Sociedad in January, and he has not only given them more of a physical presence in the final third, but an added goal threat with four in his last four games.
With Enzo Barrenechea pulling the strings in midfield, even their wretched away form has picked up, with score draws at Villarreal and Osasuna in their last two road games.
Girona are still the clear favourites for this game, but they’re not playing anywhere near well enough to suggest they’ll be in a position to dominate it. A 1-1 draw in the Catalan derby at Espanyol on Monday, means it’s now just one win in 10 competitive matches for Míchel’s side.
The Girona boss may at least point to some improvements in their level of performance over the past two matches, with a 2-2 draw against Celta Vigo prior to that, but they’ve slipped to 13th place, with the euphoria that greeted their stunning 2023/24 campaign and first Champions League adventure fading fast.
This game should be relatively open, and Girona will certainly be targeting maximum points as they bid to get back into European contention. The visitors are capable of asking questions of their own though, and I’m backing Both teams to score at 10/11, a winning bet in six of Girona’s last eight matches in La Liga.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Sevilla vs Athletic Club – Sevilla to win (draw no bet) @ 1/1
There’s a very good chance that Sunday could be a day of European hangovers in the Spanish top flight, with Athletic one of the clubs who may be suffering.
They mounted a fine comeback to see off Roma 4-3 on aggregate in their Europa League round-of-16 tie at San Mames on Thursday. A quarter-final against Rangers awaits, and with the final in Bilbao, that competition is likely to increasingly take precedence over their remaining league matches.
Their victory over the Serie A side came with the significant added bonus of all but securing an extra Champions League place for Spain in next season’s competition. With Athletic currently eight points clear of Real Betis in sixth, they are very well-placed to secure a return to Europe’s top table.
They do still have injury doubts over key men Oihan Sancet and Dani Vivian heading into this game though, and with Ernesto Valverde likely to rotate in a number of positions, it’ll be a long way off Athletic’s strongest lineup that takes to the field at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan.
Despite the very strong season they are having overall, they have struggled with the demands of playing on Thursday and then again on Sunday, with only one victory in nine league outings immediately after European matches.
That has to give Sevilla plenty of confidence heading into this game. The Andalusians are in decent form, with only one defeat in their last nine matches, and that solitary loss came against leaders Barcelona.
While it’d be a stretch to say that Sevilla are truly back as a force to be reckoned with in Spanish football, there have been some positive strides under the leadership of Garcia Pimienta.
The 50-year-old has successfully tweaked the possession-heavy approach favoured during his previous reign at Las Palmas, to accommodate the players in this squad, and he’s at least instilled a solid defensive structure, while they can always count on Belgian winger Dodi Lukebakio for a bit of inspiration in the final third.
With home advantage at the Sanchez Pizjuan, there’s every reason to think they can get another positive result here, and I’m backing Sevilla to win (Draw no bet) at 1/1.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano to win @ 6/4
Real Sociedad are also prime candidates to struggle on the road, following a bruising Europa League night in Manchester.
The trip to Old Trafford was incredibly La Real’s 19th game already in 2025. Given they had to negotiate a play-off round in Europe, and have also progressed to the Copa del Rey semi-finals, it has become increasingly difficult for Imanol Alguacil to juggle the demands of maintaining a challenge on three fronts.
He has often tended to prioritise the cups over league fixtures in terms of team selection, and a strong Real Sociedad side was defeated 4-1 at Old Trafford on Thursday in a game full of penalties, and controversial moments.
A fourth defeat in five matches in all competitions, and ninth loss in the last two months, only adds to the sense that La Real have regressed this season.
The depth isn’t quite as strong as it perhaps needed to be, given the heavy workload they’ve had to deal with. There is also a lack of convincing attacking options, best summed up by a very poor goal tally of just 23 in 27 games in La Liga, the joint worst in the division aside from rock bottom Real Valladolid.
Imanol is sure to make some changes again here, but in some respects this is the worst possible fixture to have after a gruelling away game in Europe.
Rayo are an all-action side that looks to play at a high tempo and put real pressure on opposing teams, particularly when they play in Vallecas.
Only last weekend, they made life really difficult for Real Madrid who were dealing with some tired legs of their own following their Champions League derby against Atleti. Rayo had twice as many shots as Los Blancos at the Bernabéu, and more of the ball, despite some significant selection issues.
While they lost that game 2-1, it was a really strong performance, and they should be in a slightly better position this weekend, with their top scorer Jorge de Frutos available again after suspension, while there’s an outside chance that key midfielder Isi Palazon could be fit enough to feature at some point.
Given Real Sociedad’s poor form and likely fatigue at the end of an incredibly busy period, I’m backing Rayo Vallecano to win at 6/4.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark’s La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page…
