The Detroit Pistons welcome the short-handed Oklahoma City Thunder to Little Caesars Arena as OKC will try to make up for the absences of Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren against a motivated Pistons team looking for a bounce back win tonight.
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
Mar 15, 2025 • 16:12 ET • 4 min read
The Oklahoma City Thunder have now won eight of nine games, but with two major injuries lurking they could be in trouble against a trendy Detroit Pistons team.
With a solid defense on the other side of the floor, my Thunder vs. Pistons predictions will explain why injuries could make a huge impact in what should be a surprisingly close game.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Saturday, March 15.
Thunder vs Pistons prediction
My best bet: Pistons +4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Oklahoma City Thunder were able to withstand a big injury to Jalen Williams last time out in a six-point win over the Boston Celtics, but their performance from the three-point arc suffered and they were left vulnerable on the wing as Jayson Tatum dropped 33 points.
Now, Oklahoma City will go into Detroit on Saturday without Williams and Chet Holmgren as the center takes the night off to rest.
This should have a two-pronged effect even for the deepest team in the league. Holmgren has been responsible for gains in every shooting zone on offense – with the team excelling in the long mid-range in particular – while Williams has prevented teams from attempting shots from outside at a very noticeable clip.
The good news for the Detroit Pistons is that they’ve not only taken the second-fewest shots from 3 on average according to Cleaning the Glass on account of its poor shooting, but the bad news is that Williams’ impact on defense has been pretty bad other than running his men off the 3-point line.
That’s why Oklahoma City was able to survive Boston with a strong showing defensively, but without the incredible rim defense of Holmgren it should be left vulnerable against a Pistons team which has taken over 60% of its shots from the short mid-range or closer with excellent shooting numbers in both zones in the last two weeks.
Detroit should enjoy attacking the Thunder inside without two of their best players, and as the best defense in basketball this month it should have no issues slowing them down without their contributions offensively.
Thunder vs Pistons same-game parlay
Pistons +4.5Jalen Duren Over 12.5 points
Tobia Harris Over 1.5 made threes
First and foremost, we’ll focus in on the Thunder’s lack of a rim presence without Holmgren. While Detroit likes to shoot all around the rim – not just in the restricted area – that’s where Holmgren’s impact has been felt the most.
Jalen Duren is essentially only shooting at the rim, and over the last four games he’s been incredible with 13 or more points each night on a cool 66.7% shooting. He should be heavily relied upon to score here, and with opponents having an even tougher time on the glass with both these Thunder men out I think it’s best to avoid any other markets.
Teams have also actually had a harder time racking up assists with both men off the floor as well, and that’s why I think we just have to go for straight scoring here. Detroit doesn’t like shooting the 3 much, but with the number of looks Oklahoma City is giving up with Williams in particular off the floor I think his would-be assignment on defense should benefit.
Harris has hit multiple times from deep in two straight games now and is quietly shooing 42.5% in his last 12 games. It’s worth rolling the dice here.
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Thunder vs Pistons odds
Thunder vs Pistons live odds
Thunder vs Pistons opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -6.5 | Detroit +6.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -240 | Detroit +155
- Over/Under: Over 234.5 | Under 234.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Pistons spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread hit 5.5 points early in the betting window and fell another point on Saturday afternoon.
- The Thunder have taken on 78% of the bets and 70% of the handle wagered on the spread.
- The total spiked a point upon opening before heading back to the opening number for most of the day and falling two points later on.
- The Over has accounted for 65% of the tickets but a lower 48% of the money.
Thunder vs Pistons trend
The Detroit Pistons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 41 games (+18.15 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pistons.
How to watch Thunder vs Pistons
Location Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan Date Saturday, 3-15-2025 Tip-off 7:00 p.m. ET TV FanDuel Sports Network-Oklahoma, KSBI, FanDuel Sports Network-Detroit
Thunder vs Pistons latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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