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Careful, Cautious: Navigating Credit After Tariffs
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- 00:00Is it an opportunity or is it something to be absolutely avoided until we know more? The Fed chair said we’ll have more clarity in a year. That’s a long way away. Neil Dutta this morning saying the Fed is reactive, not proactive and can’t offset a trade war. We all know that, right? It can maybe do something about inflation or perhaps unemployment, but it can’t offset an entire trade war. And he also says that Trump is playing Russian roulette. No chess. This is just going to get worse. So would you catch a falling knife here? Would you put yourself in that position? Well, yeah. So for us, we came into the year, like in decompression and and dispersion. We knew that credit risk is going to be higher this year even before we have spoken out. And we continue to believe that that we have to be careful in in putting more money to work. So the trade here would be up and quality up and liquidity up and capital structure. This is what we came in with and now we believe in more so post tariffs and more. Can you answer that as well? Yeah, I know, absolutely. I mean, on our side, I would say we have been overall cautious and we have a favorable quality, I would say over or over on the credit markets, I would say there are some opportunities that maybe we should look at in the current market context. I would say that you should report better than than the US. When we look at our studies over, let’s say, a commercial war, usually the people, the country that are imposing tariffs is the ones suffering the most. That’s what our studies show. On the other side, we see as well that when we look at Europe, there is at least, let’s say, our fiscal package from Germany, that everything being a commercial there are weights and push, our GDP are higher. And so finally and we just do what Paul states when we look at the US versus Europe, ECB is in a better position to act on the rest on rates than than than defense. Both may have an issue of growth because of what’s happening with tariffs, but Fed has a bigger issue on inflation than this, which means that everything the appropriate ECB would be able to act better and to push lower rates right now have done better than the Fed. So it is more supportive for the for the European credit market than the US credit markets. And what we have seen in the recent, let’s say, our last few days that both market reacted the same way, which is quite normal and subscribe to it. But in terms we let you bet and fortunately I think you make sense to go for the European markets, even whether we look at the chicken spreads or whether we look at duration.
