Heading into the Final Four, Duke has the most efficient offense in the history of the KenPom database and the highest net rating of any team this millennium.
We knew the Blue Devils would be talented, but nobody saw this level of dominance coming from a team starting three freshmen and a Tulane transfer.
“I give [Jon] Scheyer a ton of credit,” one opposing coach said. “I think it’s exceedingly rare that you find a situation where you hit to such a strong degree on all three of those freshmen. I think it was pretty clear to a lot of people that Cooper [Flagg] was going to be one of the best players in the country. Cooper became the best player in the country.”
Led by the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 NBA draft pick in June, Duke has lost one game since Thanksgiving and is operating at an extremely high level at both ends of the floor. The Blue Devils are the clear favorite to win the national championship Monday night.
“They have five NBA players. Sion James is a pro now. Tyrese Proctor is a pro. He hit seven 3s in an NCAA tournament game. [Kon] Knueppel had 25 in an NCAA tournament game, 28 in the ACC tournament. They have three lottery picks,” a coach said. “They have the best player in college basketball and multiple other NBA players and shotmakers.
“That’s what’s huge. The shotmakers. They have multiple guys who can go for 25 if you need them to. And then you have the lob threat in [Khaman] Maluach, which is huge. They get to the point, they throw that ball anywhere around the basket and Maluach is dunking the s— out of it. You have to guard every one of their guys. You want to try to cut out Cooper Flagg? OK, well those other guys are good enough.”
“I think it’s their size and athleticism,” another coach added. “They’re big as s—. That’s No. 1.”
On paper, there aren’t many deficiencies. The Blue Devils rank in the top five in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They rank in the top 10 in 2-point shooting percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. They don’t turn the ball over often. They led the ACC in rebounding percentage at both ends of the floor. They make their free throws.
“I don’t see a noticeable weakness in them,” one opposing coach said. “Some level of shooting variance has to factor in. You have to hope that they miss. Could Cooper go into a game and go 0-for-3 from 3? He could. Proctor has shot it amazingly; is there a chance where somehow he doesn’t? Sion could go through a game without making a shot.”
“They’re playing so confidently,” another coach said. “They remind me a little of last year’s UConn team, the ball sort of just starts rolling downhill and there’s no stopping it.”
But can they be beat on the most important weekend of the season? And if so, how can it happen?
We reached out to coaches who have faced the other Final Four teams — Houston, Florida and Auburn — to see where each team could possibly find an edge against Duke.
Kelvin Sampson talks about Houston’s bounce-back from 4-3 start
Houston coach Kelvin Sampson shares how Houston recovered from a 4-3 start and what stands out about Duke star Cooper Flagg.
Houston Cougars
What they do well: Houston will be the best defensive team Duke has seen all season, ranking No. 1 nationally in defensive efficiency.
Jon Scheyer alluded to it in his Thursday news conference, but the Cougars’ pressure and physicality is something you can’t replicate in practice. It’s also something coaches who lost to Houston this season struggled against.
“It’s just how aggressive they are,” one Big 12 coach said. “Their physicality on the ball on one-on-one drives. The way they attack the ball in gaps, the way they attack in ball-screen coverage, putting two guys on the ball. They double the post. If you haven’t seen that all year, it’s hard to plan for. If you don’t see it on a regular basis, it’s really, really hard to go against.”
What separates this year’s version of Houston from previous Kelvin Sampson-coached groups, however, is the perimeter shooting. Houston ranks second in the country in 3-point shooting percentage, making nearly 40% of its attempts from beyond the arc. Milos Uzan, L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp are all making better than 41% of their outside attempts. Cryer had 30 points against Gonzaga in the second round, and Uzan is averaging 14.0 points and shooting 50.6% from 3-point range over his past 21 games.
“Those two have been playing at such a high level the last two months of the season,” an opposing coach said. “In crunch moments, they close games out. They find ways to make shots, and they’re really able to play in space and make shots. They’re confident enough and tough enough, and they’ve played in a lot of close games over the last three, four months. They believe they’re going to make the shot, make the play and close the game out.”
One Big 12 coach added, “If they can find a way to play in short rolls and go at Cooper Flagg early on, I think you try to do that. I think [Kon] Knueppel, as good as he is offensively, as efficient as he is, you put him on an island and get the right matchup, whether it’s Uzan going one-on-one or L.J. Cryer. You have to find ways to attack those guys in space.
“You have to find a way to make Cooper Flagg guard and not let him roam around the floor and impact things with his athleticism, especially from the weak side.”
Houston can beat Duke with: Offensive rebounding and defense.
Houston, like most Sampson teams, is elite on the offensive glass. The Cougars led the Big 12 in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing nearly 36% of their missed shots and scoring 13.5 second-chance points per game.
“The No. 1 thing is always going to be rebounding,” a Big 12 coach said. “They’re a different team in terms of those second-chance opportunities. They get those offensive rebounds and they kick them out for wide-open 3s. It’s ingrained in what Houston does. It’s who they are. Regardless of how athletic Duke is, how big Duke is, it comes down to the physicality and the want-to, to make those plays, whether it’s tipping it out or securing the rebound. They do a great job of keeping the ball alive.”
The key will obviously be defense. Duke hasn’t seen a defense like Houston all season, but the Cougars haven’t seen an offense at the level of the Blue Devils yet this season, either.
“They’re f—ing maniacs,” a coach who scouted both teams said. “I don’t think Houston can score enough points to beat them, but I think Duke will have a hard game. They’re going to be pit bulls in this game and I don’t think Duke has seen anything like it.”
“If the game is officiated to where they can be really physical with Duke, it will allow Houston to guard them one-on-one,” another coach said. “But if fouls start to add up, that will be a great indicator to how the game is played.”
Houston will face Duke in the national semifinal Saturday (8:49 p.m. ET, CBS).
Florida Gators
What they do well: It starts with Walton Clayton Jr., who earned first-team All-American honors this season. He scored 30 points against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight, willing the Gators to the win down the stretch, and also made big shot after big shot to spark his team in the second round against UConn. He has scored at least 22 points in seven of his past nine games.
“I love Clayton, I think he’s the best guard in the country,” one opposing coach said. “He obviously has great shotmaking skills. You can’t guard him with someone his size or smaller. Where you need to be impactful is against — especially off his left hand — his quick 3 off one dribble. You’ve got to have a bigger person on him, and you need to have the big up to make it difficult. That can help neutralize him. He’s a really good 3-point shooter, but he’s less impactful inside the line.”
Coach Todd Golden has one of the elite frontcourts in college basketball, maybe the best when factoring in the variety of skills and the depth available in those roles. Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu start, but Golden could turn to future pro Thomas Haugh off the bench, as well as Micah Handlogten and even Sam Alexis if needed.
“Florida is so big around the basket,” one coach said. “The size of those guys around the rim makes it tough. It’s an absolute war on the backboard. You can’t just drive in there and challenge them. They do a really good job of going vertical. And then there’s two more guys. They’re not overly concerned with foul trouble or playing too much, they’re all sort of just going for it.”
“Thomas Haugh is a monster. He’s the one we feared the most,” an SEC coach said. “He’s so damn shifty, he’s athletic, he’s tough. Let him get to his right hand and he’s a free throw attempt waiting to happen. He’s just physical enough where you can’t go small on him. But you can’t go big because he’ll drive the s— out of you. Sit back and he’ll bang a 3.”
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Florida can beat Duke with: Bigs and momentum.
One coach pointed to Duke’s loss to Clemson as a blueprint for how to potentially beat the Blue Devils in the title game. The Tigers got 22 points from 6-foot-11 Viktor Lakhin and 12 points and 10 boards from 6-8 Ian Schieffelin, while also fouling out Khaman Maluach and getting four fouls on Maliq Brown, Kon Knueppel and Sion James.
“You somehow have to find a way to not play against their five best guys,” one coach said. “Is there a way to get Maluach out of there? [Florida’s] size and physicality around the basket could make it harder for Duke to get baskets. Get [Duke] into foul trouble so their best players aren’t on the glass.”
“They’re one of the few teams that can kick Duke’s ass in the frontcourt,” another coach said. “They have just as much size, just as much athleticism and they’re more physical and deeper. They’ve got more bodies to throw at you.”
The other key for Florida will be getting on a run where it simply overwhelms with perimeter shotmaking and transition baskets. The Gators have done it in the NCAA tournament and they did it against good teams all season.
“I watched Florida run through Alabama, run through Tennessee, just obliterate these people,” an opposing coach said. “They get on runs. They crush you on the glass, they get stops, they play in transition and everyone gets more confident. Duke absolutely looks like the best team, but they still played a 22-, 23-game stretch against [subpar] competition. Will they find themselves in a situation where they’re down — and because they haven’t been down, how do they respond?”
Florida could face Duke in the national championship game Monday if it beats Auburn on Saturday (6:09 p.m. ET, CBS).
Auburn’s Broome channels ‘chip’ on his shoulder to fuel run
Johni Broome reflects on his journey to Auburn and how his defiant mindset has helped lead the Tigers to the Final Four and earned him a player of the year nomination.
Auburn Tigers
What they do well: Auburn has the best player in the country not named Cooper Flagg — and he would have been a shoo-in for Wooden Award honors in most other years. Johni Broome put up otherworldly numbers in nonconference play and has resumed his incredible production in the NCAA tournament, totaling 47 points and 30 rebounds in wins over Michigan and Michigan State last weekend.
Coach Bruce Pearl also uses Broome in ways that are atypical for most teams to defend.
“For teams that haven’t played against the flex offense, which is like 98% of teams, it’s hard to prep for it in a short amount of time and really guard it,” one SEC coach said. “Duke will probably just switch it. And they can because their whole lineup is 6-foot-5 and up. You have to be physical. That’s the main action they run, but there’s a lot of different options they run out of it.
“Do you pressure Broome at the top of the key or let him set you up? It’s hard to game-plan for, because the guards all shoot the hell out of the ball and Johni led them in assists. Dudes shooting 40% from 3 are all around him, so it’s hard to help on him. He can kick it out and they knock them down. Guys shooting 3 after 3 after 3 or letting Johni get 30. You have to make a decision. There’s no in between.”
If Auburn emerges as the national champion Monday night, it’s almost guaranteed that freshman point guard Tahaad Pettiford will play a key role. Pettiford has started only one game all season, but he’s one of the most electric players in college basketball. He comes up big in big games, scoring 23 against Creighton, 20 against Michigan, 21 against Kentucky, 24 against Georgia, 18 against Purdue, 20 against Duke, 21 against Houston.
“The X factor is Tahaad Pettiford. That’s when they’re good. When he’s going, they’re going,” an SEC coach said. “Johni can win a lot of games by himself. But the good teams, the elite teams, he can’t beat them by himself. The difference is Tahaad. When they beat Alabama, he got hot. When they lost to Alabama, he wasn’t great. Against Tennessee in the win [in January], Tahaad made plays down the stretch. He was minus-20 when Tennessee beat them. In transition, he’s hard to guard. In ball screens, he spreads you so much, size isn’t a factor. He makes you guard him at 35 feet. And he’s fast enough to get by you.”
“Pettiford makes them unique,” another coach added. “As good as Broome and [Chad] Baker-Mazara are, he’s the one that makes things out of nothing. He’s shown big shotmaking. He’s more dynamic than Clayton, but not as good. Tahaad is very talented and he’s shown up big in these high-leverage moments. I give him a ton of credit for that. His confidence and youthful exuberance allows him to overperform.”
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Auburn can beat Duke with: Broome and interior dominance.
Auburn and Duke already played each other once this season, so there are some things to watch if the game is to go in the Tigers’ direction. One, Broome has to win his matchup with Khaman Maluach and likely find a way to get him in foul trouble. Duke’s finishing stretch against Auburn in the December game came as a result of Maliq Brown subbing in for Maluach and stifling Broome late in the game.
“You have Johni Broome, a talented dude, an NBA prospect, going against a freshman [in Maluach],” one coach said. “He’s really good, but he’s still a freshman. Johni has played a lot of basketball. If they guard him one-on-one like they normally do, that’s a matchup that can be exploited. What makes Johni so good is his ability to shoot it and rebound his misses. For a dude that’s not super athletic and poppy, he’s got a really good second jump.”
Auburn was terrific on the offensive glass in that first meeting against Duke, grabbing 15 rebounds — more than 40% of its missed shots. The Tigers rank eighth in the country in second-chance points per game and will look to use their physicality and experience to challenge Duke down low.
“Duke is used to being big and being the bully, but Auburn on the glass, Duke hasn’t seen that a lot in the ACC,” a coach said. “SEC games are a brawl. They can beat Duke on the backboards. Chaney Johnson is a tough, physical dude that will try to impose his will. Flagg will have to bring a physicality, both on the perimeter and on the inside.”
Auburn could face Duke in the national championship game Monday if it beats Florida on Saturday (6:09 p.m. ET, CBS).
