Last year, one No. 14 seed, one No. 13 seed, two No. 12 seeds and three No. 11 seeds pulled off first round upsets in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

What surprises will we see in 2025?

Men’s Bracket Challenge Game users are leading with No. 11 Drake, No. 11 North Carolina, No. 12 Colorado State and No. 11 VCU when it comes to coming up with upsets this year — defined as wins by a team seeded at least five seeds lower than its opponent. The Bulldogs lead the pack, with 44.27 percent of Men’s BCG entries picking them to knock out No. 5 Missouri. North Carolina at 44.06 percent was the only other team to break 40 percent.

If you’re looking for upsets more of the Cinderella variety, Men’s BCG brackets are leading with No. 13 High Point (31.22 percent vs. No. 4 Purdue), No. 14 Lipscomb (10.67 percent vs. No. 3 Iowa State), No. 15 Omaha (7.50 percent vs. No. 2 St. John’s) and No. 16 SIU Edwardsville (3.20 percent vs. No. 1 Houston) on those seed lines. Interestingly, the Panthers, Mavericks and Cougars are all making their March Madness debuts.

16 vs. 1

MATCHUP Upset pick percentage No. 16 SIU Edwardsville vs. No. 1 Houston 3.20 No. 16 Norfolk State vs. No. 1 Florida 2.80 No. 16 Alabama State vs. No. 1 Auburn 2.51 No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s vs. No. 1 Duke 1.76 Yet again, 16 seeds are the least-picked upsets. Only two No. 16 seeds have ever beaten No. 1 seeds, though they’ve come since 2018. It’s important to note that FDU was picked to beat Purdue on only 2.36 percent of brackets in 2023.

We remember how that ended:

15 vs. 2

MATCHUP Upset pick percentage No. 15 Omaha vs. No. 2 St. John’s 7.50 No. 15 Bryant vs. No. 2 Michigan State 5.97 No. 15 Wofford vs. No. 2 Tennessee 5.46 No. 15 Robert Morris vs. No. 2 Alabama 4.78 Will we go back to seeing a 15-over-2 upset this year? There was a three-year run of 15s beating 2s — 2021 Oral Roberts beating Ohio State, 2022 Saint Peter’s defeating Kentucky and 2023 Princeton topping Arizona — before all No. 2 seeds won last season. If the upset trend returns this year, bracket fillers are looking toward Omaha.

14 vs. 3

MATCHUP Upset pick percentage No. 14 Lipscomb vs. No. 3 Iowa State 10.67 No. 14 Montana vs. No. 3 Wisconsin 10.65 No. 14 Troy vs. No. 3 Kentucky 9.40 No. 14 UNC Wilmington vs. No. 3 Texas Tech 7.89 Oakland was the least-picked No. 14 seed at 5.11 percent in 2023 — and yet the Golden Grizzlies were the only 14 to win a game in 2023. All four 14 seeds are getting picked above that this year.

13 vs. 4

MATCHUP Upset pick percentage No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 Purdue 31.22 No. 13 Yale vs. No. 4 Texas A&M 30.65 No. 13 Akron vs. No. 4 Arizona 15.68 No. 13 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Maryland 15.35 High Point and Yale are both ahead of last year’s most-picked 13 seed (Samford at 26.73 percent). The Panthers and Bulldogs are also the second- and third-best performing 13 seed since Men’s BCG bracket tracking started in 2014 (South Dakota State was above 38 percent in 2022).

Yale’s mark is likely helped by fans remembering the Bulldogs’ upset of No. 4 Auburn in the first round just last year. Yale was the winner in that game on only 9.55 percent of brackets.

12 vs. 5

MATCHUP Upset pick percentage No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis 39.65 No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan 32.82 No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon 30.01 No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Clemson 22.36 James Madison (45.47 percent) and Grand Canyon (30.68) were the most-picked 12s last year and ended up advancing to the second round. No team is as popular as JMU this year on the same seed line, though Colorado State is leading the pack of three 12s coming in better or around 30 percent.

11 vs. 6

MATCHUP Upset pick percentage No. 11 Drake vs. No. 6 Missouri 44.27 No. 11 North Carolina vs. No. 6 Ole Miss 44.06 No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU 39.33 No. 11 Xavier vs. No. 6 Illinois 31.21 The 11 seeds aren’t as popular as they were last year — one year after three 11s won in the first round and one (NC State) even made the Final Four. But the top two this year do come in ahead of all 2023 No. 11 seeds.

Drake is the top upset pick overall across seed lines. The Bulldogs are competing in March Madness for the third season in a row and fourth time in five years. They last won a tournament game in 2021 against Wichita State in the First Four.

As for UNC, the Tar Heels almost caught Drake as the top upset pick after UNC routed San Diego State in the First Four.