Syracuse and SMU will face off in the second round of the ACC Tournament on Wednesday, March 12, 2025, with tipoff set for 9:30 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The Orange enter the matchup after a dramatic first-round victory over Florida State, where JJ Starling’s 27 points and Kyle Cuffe’s clutch free throws sealed a 66-62 win. Meanwhile, SMU enjoyed a first-round bye after finishing fourth in the ACC during its inaugural season in the conference.
For Syracuse standout JJ Starling, this game also represents an opportunity to finish unsettled business.
In Syracuse’s last meeting against SMU, less than two weeks ago, Starling had one of his worst performances of the season, scoring just 10 points on 3-for-17 shooting, including 1-for-10 from three-point range. Starling’s struggles continued in Syracuse’s March 8 loss to Virginia, where he again failed to find his shot, making the Florida State breakout all the more significant.
After bouncing back with a dominant 27-point effort against the Seminoles, Starling now has a chance to rewrite the script and lead Syracuse past the Mustangs—a team that narrowly escaped with a 77-75 win when the two last met.
That near-upset on March 4th, where Dimers’ data analysts had given Syracuse just a 12% chance to win, highlighted how competitive this matchup could be. With Starling rediscovering his form and Syracuse proving it can push SMU to the brink, analysts have reexamined their projections for this rematch.
In response, Dimers’ data new simulations were conducted early Wednesday morning, factoring in the latest statistical outputs and roster updates for both teams. The results are below.
Syracuse vs. SMU Key Details
- Teams: Syracuse Orange vs. SMU Mustangs
- Date: Wednesday, March 12, 2025
- Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
- TV: ESPNU
Syracuse vs. SMU Latest Odds
We’ve sourced the best betting odds across the country for Wednesday’s ACC Tournament clash:
- Spread: Syracuse +8.5 (-110), SMU -8.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Syracuse +285, SMU -350
- Total: Over/Under 152.5 (-112/-105)
As always, odds are subject to change, but bettors can find the best ACC Tournament promotions at sportsbooks such as Fanatics, and FanDuel. Meanwhile, Bet365 bonus code “SYRACUSE” has emerged as the most popular betting offer for this game.
New Syracuse vs. SMU ACC Tournament Predictions
Utilizing advanced analytics and AI-powered simulations, Dimers’ model projected the Syracuse-SMU game 10,000 times on Tuesday evening. Here are the latest projections:
- Win Probabilities: Syracuse 23%, SMU 77%
- Predicted Final Score: Syracuse 72-80 SMU
- Against the Spread: Syracuse (+8.5) 51%, SMU (-8.5) 49%
- Total Points (152.5): Over 50%, Under 50%
These projections show Syracuse facing an uphill battle once again, but the Orange’s near-win in early March suggests they are more competitive in this matchup than the odds suggest.
Syracuse’s Path to an Upset
In their previous meeting, Syracuse pushed SMU to the brink largely thanks to Chris Bell’s 13 points off the bench and Eddie Lampkin’s 10 points and nine rebounds in the paint. Despite SMU shooting 53.6% from the field, Syracuse stayed competitive by hitting 40.9% of their three-pointers and 73.7% from the free-throw line—a crucial improvement compared to their struggles at the stripe against Florida State.
SMU is led by Matt Cross, who posted 13 points and eight rebounds in the March 4th contest. Boopie Miller, SMU’s key playmaker, has also regained full health after an earlier injury, providing the Mustangs with additional firepower.
For Syracuse to complete the upset, Starling needs to exorcise the demons from his last performance against SMU and prove that his 27-point explosion vs. Florida State was no fluke. If he can carry over his confidence from the Seminoles game and find his rhythm early, the Orange’s offense will have a much better chance to keep pace with the Mustangs.
Additionally, Syracuse must close out the game stronger than they did in their last two meetings with SMU and Virginia, both of which saw them blow double-digit leads late. If Adrian Autry’s squad can learn from those mistakes and maintain composure, an upset isn’t out of reach.
Conclusion
Syracuse enters this matchup as a significant underdog once again, but the Orange already proved they can challenge SMU. After nearly pulling off a shocking upset less than two weeks ago, Adrian Autry’s squad will look to build on that momentum and capitalize on their defensive improvements. If JJ Starling can redeem himself after his rough performances against SMU and Virginia while continuing his resurgence, and Eddie Lampkin controls the boards, Syracuse could be poised to break through.
For more insights, betting breakdowns, and ACC Tournament coverage, stay tuned to Syracuse.com.
