The Seahawks are signing Cooper Kupp to a three-year, $45 million contract. Kupp was cut by the Rams earlier this week but didn’t take long to find a new home. The move shakes up the fantasy landscape, filling the void left by Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Here’s where things stand after the trade.
Cooper Kupp Fantasy Outlook
Kupp fell out of favor in Los Angeles last year. The younger and more explosive Puka Nacua became the focal point of the passing attack, relegating Kupp to No. 2 duties on an offense that didn’t seem awfully interested in getting the ball to its secondary pass-catchers. Kupp and Nacua were injured early in the season. Both players returned in Week 8 and played limited roles. Nacua missed most of Week 9 after getting tossed from the game. From Week 10 onward, Kupp earned 20 percent of LA’s targets with a 25 percent air yards share. He averaged 11.3 PPR points per game. Kupp only ran 37 percent of his routes from the slot and had an average target depth of 10.4. That would have been a career-low slot rate and a career-high aDOT if both numbers held over a full season. Kupp was essentially playing out of position, though it’s hard to say that explains his falloff entirely. ESPN’s player tracking data has 2024 as a drastic falloff in Kupp’s ability to get open. He logged an Open Score of 37. That was the lowest of his career and ranked 102nd out of 116 eligible wideouts.
On the plus side, Kupp still had some juice when operating from the slot. After Nacua returned, Kupp averaged 1.8 yards per route run from the slot and was targeted on 22 percent of those routes. Kupp was also surprisingly effective versus man coverage, averaging 2.3 YPRR over the second half of the season. The fact that he was so good when going one-on-one gives some credence to the idea that it was the offensive design—not Kupp’s talent—that changed last year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Fantasy Outlook
JSN’s outlook depends solely on how the Seahawks choose to deploy Kupp. If they want to make the most of their $45 million investment and use him as their primary slot receiver, JSN will have to level up in a hurry. The former first-round pick finally broke out last year and he got the ball rolling when DK Metcalf missed Week 8. From then on, Smith-Njigba averaged 6.3 catches for 81 yards per week. The team also started using him on deep shots more often with his aDOT climbing from 8.3 before Week 8 to 10 after Week 8. Even with JSN proving to be every bit the superstar he looked coming out of Ohio State, his role was still limited in one key way. Seattle kept Smith-Njigba in the slot for 81 percent of his routes during his two-month breakout. This held true with or without Metcalf active. Metcalf missed Weeks 8 and 9 but was active for the following eight games. JSN finished the year with 83 receptions for 993 yards from the slot, both of which easily led the league.
Amid his breakout, Smith-Njigba averaged 2.7 yards per route run from the slot and was targeted on 21 percent of those routes. His numbers fell to 1.6 YPRR and a .21 TPRR from out wide. JSN played almost exclusively in the slot as a Buckeye as well, so his confined role shouldn’t come as much of a surprise and isn’t likely to change.
Seahawks Fantasy Fallout
The move is a zero floor transaction for Kupp. JSN’s strength overlap tightly with Kupp’s and the former was better in nearly every aspect last year. It also puts a little more risk on the table for JSN, who could get booted from the slot more often than he did last year. However, if the Seahawks are looking to maximize their talent, using JSN as the alpha out of the slot and letting Kupp figure things out as a boundary receiver is undoubtedly the optimal configuration. That could cap Kupp’s fantasy outlook at WR3 numbers in 2025.
Even conceding that Kupp is nowhere near his prime, the move improves things for Sam Darnold and the Seahawks’ passing attack as a whole. Seattle cut Tyler Lockett and traded DK Metcalf this offseason, leaving them with Jake Bobo and recently-signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their starting receivers alongside JSN. Darnold’s resurgence in Minnesota was due in part to the elite cast of weapons he was throwing to. Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak will likely call a more run-heavy approach in Seattle than Darnold had with the Vikings. Kubiak dialed up a -5% pass rate over expected with the Saints last year. But his passing plays will feature all of the bells and whistles that Darnold grew accustomed to in Minnesota and now he gets a massive upgrade at WR2. Darnold should survive as a boom/bust QB2 in his new home.
