With Saturday night’s Final Four tipoff drawing near, updated simulation results suggest the margin between No. 1 Duke and No. 1 Houston may be widening — and one key reason could be Duke’s getting back a crucial weapon just in time.
According to the latest 10,000-game simulation from Dimers.com, Duke’s win probability against Houston has jumped to 72%, a noticeable increase from the 69% we reported earlier in the week.
Likewise, the Blue Devils’ edge against the spread and total have strengthened, pointing toward an emerging trend: oddsmakers and models alike may be factoring in the return of Duke’s do-it-all defensive forward, and notorious Syracuse Orange transfer, Maliq Brown.
Brown’s presence shifts the gameplan
After suffering two dislocations in the same shoulder since mid-February, Brown’s role in the NCAA Tournament had been reduced to single-digit minutes in Duke’s games against Arizona and Alabama.
But speaking with ESPN on Friday, the 6-foot-9 forward said he “[feels] good” after a full week of contact work and expects to be more involved on Saturday.
“Compared to last week, I feel better,” Brown said. “Not trying to think about my injury… just trying to keep the team on the same page.”
While Brown’s stat line — 2.4 points and 3.7 rebounds per game — doesn’t leap off the page, his impact goes far beyond the box score. He’s Duke’s most switchable big, a constant disrupter on the defensive end, and a reliable glue guy when the Blue Devils need to slow down elite scorers like Houston’s LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead.
With more minutes projected for Brown, models may now be leaning toward a Duke defense capable of keeping Houston’s offense out of rhythm — particularly when the Cougars rely on second-chance opportunities and mid-possession resets.
Odds and simulation shift in Duke’s favor
Updated simulation results:
- Duke win probability: 72% (up from 69%)
- Houston win probability: 28%
- Total: 137
- Spread: Duke -5.5
- Moneyline: Duke -265, Houston +235
That 3-point swing in Duke’s win projection might not sound like much, but it’s enough to subtly impact the way public money flows ahead of the Final Four. It also puts added attention on Duke’s depth — and Brown’s recovery — as the storyline to watch heading into Saturday.
Bonus bets for Saturday’s Final Four
March Madness bettors can still unlock limited-time bonus bets ahead of Saturday night’s game with Bet365, DraftKings, and BetMGM. These offers apply to both the Houston vs. Duke matchup and Monday’s national championship game.
Conclusion: Duke’s edge is growing — and Brown may be the reason
While Duke has been favored all week, Saturday’s updated simulation data and Brown’s improving health help clarify why the gap may continue to grow. A healthy Maliq Brown gives Duke another layer of versatility, especially on defense, and could be the subtle x-factor that helps push the Blue Devils into Monday’s championship game. As bettors and fans look for last-minute insight, this trend is one worth watching.
