© Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Flyers closed out their 2024-25 regular season with a 5-4 loss to the Buffalo Sabres Thursday night. But no one really cares about the specific details of the game — how the goals were scored or by whom — it is just the result that matters and what it means for the Flyers in the upcoming Draft Lottery in a couple weeks.

With this loss in Buffalo, the Flyers have now leaped both the Seattle Kraken and the Boston Bruins in the lottery standings — in the actual standings, well of course they tripped and crashed down — to now have the 4th-best odds.

How it all boils down is pretty good considering where the Flyers were just a few hours ago. They have a 9.5 percent chance of winning a lottery for the first- or second-overall pick, a miniscule chance of 0.3 percent of moving up one pick selection, a 15.4 percent chance at staying at fourth overall, a sizeable 44.6 percent chance of moving down to fifth, and then rounding it out with a 20.8 percent chance of slipping down two spots to sixth overall.

1st overall2nd3rd4th5th6th9.5%9.5%0.3%15.4%44.6%20.8%

All laid out like that, it looks daunting, but in reality a lot would have to happen. For the Flyers to move down at all, a team below them would have to win one of the lotteries for the two first picks — by the numbers the more teams increases the chances of that happening, but it has also happened so rarely in the NHL that it feels unlikely. Not even based on the math, but just history.

There has been no set date for this year’s Draft Lottery but there have been reports that it could fall on May 5 or 6, but nothing has been confirmed as of yet. Typically, it does happen towards the end of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, though.

Now, how does this affect the Flyers’ chances at getting an impact player? For the 2025 NHL Draft, there are specifically two players everyone are clamoring for at the top in center Michael Misa and defenseman Matthew Schaefer — the Flyers would be skipping and whistling their way to the podium to select either of them — but then it goes down a tier. Boston College center James Hagens, along with some forwards like Porter Martone and Anton Frondell, are projected to go in the next tier.

Regardless of the lottery results, this is massive for the Flyers if the draft goes as projected (it never does). If the Flyers stay at fourth overall, they are getting a projected top-six forward like Hagens or Martone instead of hoping for someone like that to slip down to them at seventh, where they could be picking if they won Thursday.

Considering how all three of the San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, and Nashville Predators — all three teams above Philadelphia in the Draft Lottery — had significantly worse records than the Flyers this season, this is the best-case scenario. The Flyers would’ve had to have lost a whole four more games in regulation to be in the Predators’ spot at third, and eight(!) more to be where the Blackhawks are at second. That would be catastrophic and an even more nightmareish season than this team already had.

There is a silver lining to what a miserable time we all had watching and enduring this team for 82 games.