The WAC is a mid-major conference, no doubt. But this game? It’s got small-market energy. Grand Canyon has built a legit program, but it’s still a niche team outside of hardcore bettors and college hoops sickos. Cal Baptist? Even deeper into the weeds. If this were a regular-season game, it would barely move the needle nationally. But in the WAC Tournament semifinals, with a trip to the championship on the line, it’s got just enough weight to sneak into the mid-major conversation—but still late-night, small-market hoops at heart. It’s the one that sneaks onto your screen after you swore you were done betting for the day. But here we are. And, regardless of how sicko this may be, I’ve got a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this semifinal college basketball game between Grand Canyon and California Baptist in the WAC tournament tonight.
Here’s how I intend to play this game which, quite literally, fifty people total may be watching on the east coast. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Rage. Grand Canyon and Cal Baptist in a WAC semifinal that most of this side of the country won’t even know happened—but we will! The Antelopes are favored by 8.5, the total sits at 142.5, and this one has all the makings of a scrappy, weird, late-night college basketball experience.
Grand Canyon is the better team, no question. They’ve won 13 of their last 15, are holding teams to 40.6% shooting, and just ran through a solid Seattle team, 75-61, in the quarters. Offensively, they’ve been steady all year, averaging 78.3 PPG on 45.6% shooting, but the real separator is how often they live at the free-throw line—they attempt 28.7 free throws per game, 11th most in the nation. That’s a nightmare for teams that lack frontcourt depth, and Cal Baptist fits that description perfectly.
Momentum, though, is real, and Cal Baptist has plenty of it. Four straight wins, including an absolute slugfest against Tarleton (55-51) to get here, and a defense that has quietly held opponents under 70 points in five of their last six. Dominique Daniels Jr. is the guy, dropping 19.9 PPG, and Kendal Coleman is doing work inside with 11.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. They’ve also already beaten Grand Canyon once this season, a 73-71 win where the Antelopes bricked 18 threes and never found their rhythm.
The game likely tilts on free throws and controlling the rhythm. If Grand Canyon gets to the line at their usual rate, they’ll control the game and grind down a Cal Baptist squad that just played a physically exhausting quarterfinal. But if the Lancers keep this moving, avoid foul trouble, and make Grand Canyon win from deep (where they shoot just 33.1%), they have a shot to keep it close.
They’ve been doing exactly that lately—over their last five games, they’ve committed just 14.2 fouls per game, the lowest mark in the WAC in that stretch. That’s massive against a GCU team that thrives on getting to the stripe but struggles to convert at just 70%. And when the Lancers do get out in transition, they’ve been lethal, averaging 1.21 points per possession on fast breaks over their last four, up from their season average of 1.09. If they dictate movement early, this thing stays inside the number.
8.5 points is a big number in a game like this. The Lancers match up well, they’ve been keeping teams in check defensively, and they’ve already proven they can hang with Grand Canyon. Give me Cal Baptist +8.5, and let’s ride this late-night WAC madness the way it was meant to be enjoyed. No expectations. No regrets. Just vibes and (hopefully) a cover.
Tail Cal Baptist to cover the bridge leg of the three-game late-night slate tonight with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
