The Padres aren’t going to let this series slip away, especially with Dylan Cease looking to correct his early-season struggles. With a potent offense led by Tatis Jr. and Machado, and a bullpen that has been nothing short of dominant, San Diego will find a way to steal this one on Sunday Night Baseball. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for tonight’s Sunday Night Baseball game between the Astros and the Padres.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The Padres and Astros meet for the series finale, and with San Diego positioned as an underdog, the -105 price tag offers significant value. Dylan Cease will take the mound for the Padres, and while his 6.64 ERA isn’t pretty, he’s been effective in three of his four starts. The key issue has been an outlier performance against the Athletics, where he surrendered nine earned runs in just four innings. Absent that disastrous outing, Cease’s advanced metrics—3.42 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 11.18 K/9—point to a pitcher who should be poised for a bounce-back performance. While his command has wavered, his elite strikeout stuff positions him to thrive against a Houston lineup struggling against right-handers. The Astros rank 25th in wOBA against righties and 27th in ISO, providing a soft target for Cease to exploit.

Framber Valdez counters for Houston, and while his overall body of work over the past couple of seasons has been strong, the 2025 campaign has been a rocky start. With a 4.91 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through four outings, Valdez has shown inconsistency, particularly after surrendering seven earned runs in just four innings against the Cardinals in his last start. His groundball rate has dipped to 51.7%—a considerable drop from 61.7% last season. To boot, e’s allowed a concerning 50% hard-hit rate. Against a Padres team that ranks second in the league in team batting average (.275) and fourth in wOBA (.336), Valdez faces a tough challenge. San Diego’s offense, led by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, has been efficient and relentless, even with injuries to key players like Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth. Tatis, with a scorching .351 batting average and seven home runs, has been a one-man wrecking crew.

The Padres’ bullpen, meanwhile, remains elite, ranking first in MLB in ERA (2.56) and third in WHIP (1.07). Houston’s bullpen, on the other hand, has been far less reliable, especially with injuries to key pitchers. Though the Astros have the potential to rally, they’ve consistently failed to produce when trailing late, with a miserable 13-23 record when tied entering the 8th inning since 2023. In contrast, San Diego has been excellent after a win, boasting a 76-8 record when scoring five or more runs since last season.

Houston’s offensive woes have been well-documented, and while they have a solid pitching staff, the Padres’ offensive depth and elite bullpen give them the edge here. With Cease poised to improve and a strong all-around team performance expected, the Padres at -105 presents an excellent value. They’ll win by just a hair.

Padres spoil the sweep; bet it with me in the DKN betting group here!