Top two seeds Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe remain on a collision course for the Houston title match. They still have to get past two other Americans, however, as Paul meets Jenson Brooksby and Tiafoe battles Brandon Nakashima.
(1) Tommy Paul vs. (Q) Jenson Brooksby
Brooksby is back on the heels of a two-year absence from the tour stemming from wrist surgery and a doping suspension. Early returns are quite encouraging for the 24-year-old American, who upset Felix Auger-Aliassime en route to the Indian Wells third round and now finds himself in the semifinals of the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship following victories over Taro Daniel, Alejandro Tabilo, and Aleksandar Kovacevic. Brooksby even dug out of a triple-match point hole in the third-set tiebreaker against Tabilo.
Up next for the former world No. 33 on Saturday is a fourth meeting with Paul, who improved to 3-0 in the head-to-head series with a 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-4 victory earlier this season on the indoor hard courts of Dallas. The 13th-ranked American also prevailed in easy straight sets at the 2022 Cincinnati Masters and 2023 Australian Open. Paul has cooled off a bit since reaching the quarterfinals Down Under a few months ago, but he has played well so far in Houston with defeats of Cristian Garin (in a third-set tiebreaker) and Colton Smith. Brooksby, who came through qualifying, has to be feeling some fatigue–giving Paul all the more reason to maintain his mastery of this matchup.
Pick: Paul in 2
(4) Brandon Nakashima vs. (2) Frances Tiafoe
Tiafoe and Nakashima will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 5-1 in favor of Tiafoe (4-1 at the ATP level), but they have faced each other only once since 2022 and it was Nakashima who came out on top of a 2024 Tokyo showdown via a 7-5, 6-3 decision.It would be no surprise to see Nakashima get the best of his compatriot twice in a row–even though he might be the underdog on paper. The world No. 33 has been in resurgent form on both the Challenger circuit and the main tour, with a quarterfinal result in Delray Beach, a semifinal showing in Dallas, fourth-round performances in both Indian Wells and Miami, and now a semifinal run in Houston that has come at the expense of Mackenzie McDonald and Chris Eubanks. Tiafoe followed up his bye with wins over Adam Walton and Alex Michelsen, but the world No. 17 is still just 8-6 this season. Nakashima is the more consistent and confident player these days, so he should get the job done on a surface that does not really give either man a significant advantage.
Pick: Nakashima in 3
