BYU has lost in the Round of 64 in its last five NCAA Tournament appearances. The last time the Cougars made it past that round was 2011. BYU is favored against VCU in Thursday’s first-round game, but the Rams are a trendy upset pick.
We’ve got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice.
How to watch BYU vs. VCU
- What: East Regional, first round
- Venue: Ball Arena — Denver
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET, Thursday
- TV: TNT
- Streaming: Max, March Madness Live app
- Watching in-person? Get tickets on StubHub.
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No. 6 BYU Cougars
Strengths: Filling up the cup is a BYU speciality. Comfortable playing in half-court grinders or all-out sprints, the Cougars are well-drilled, unselfish and highly efficient. They enter the postseason No. 5 in effective field goal percentage, netting 37 percent on 3-pointers and over 59 percent on 2s. Also, they rank top-30 nationally in assist to field goals made, slicing and dicing teams like Bobby Flay making a perfectly cooked prime rib. Peaking at the right time, Kevin Young’s crew ranked top-10 in overall BARTHAG rating and Wins Above Bubble on BartTorvik over the regular season’s final month. With one of the tallest teams in the Dance, they’re also supreme glass commanders. On the season, they finished inside the top 70 nationally in offensive and defensive rebound percentage. Junior center Keba Keita is a mauler. As a cherry on top, 41.8 percent of BYU’s minutes were played off the bench. In other words, it doesn’t lose much punch across rotational lines.
Weaknesses: D is clearly optional for Jimmer Fredette U. Over its final 10 regular-season games, it ranked an ultra friendly No. 164 in effective field goal percent defense, surrendering 50.6 percent inside the arc and 34.1 percent beyond it. The Cougars must communicate, play connected and body up to overachieve. Free-throw shooting is another glaring shortcoming. BYU converted a paltry 69.4 percent at the charity stripe, where only 15.5 percent of its points were sourced (No. 356 in the nation). That’s partially a function of its overall offensive efficiency, but drawing whistles and taking advantage at the line needs to be prioritized.
Outlook: Winners in nine of the last 10, the Cougars enter the tournament habanero hot. Over 47 percent of their jacks come from 3-point range. When owning the arc and playing just average defense, they can compete with almost anyone. Their size, depth and overall offensive execution are attractive pluses. If NBA-bound point guard Egor Demin can play under control, BYU has the goods to taste sweetness for only the third time since 1981.
—Brad Evans
No. 11 VCU Rams
Strengths: VCU may have the best guard group in the entire country. Max Shulga, Phillip Russell and Joe Bamisile are a three-headed monster, and Zeb Jackson comes off the bench as a double-figure scorer as well. Guards win ballgames in March, and the Rams have four seniors they can rely on. That’s scary. Defensively, the Rams are elite, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage defense (45.1 percent) and top-30 in both turnover and steal percentage. They turn you over, share the ball, attempt a ton of 3-pointers and don’t allow opponents to shoot it well. There’s a lot to like about this group.
Weaknesses: Really, it’s VCU’s overall resume that raises questions. It has just one Quad 1 win and a Quad 4 loss to 7-24 Seton Hall in overtime. The Rams also played just one KenPom top-50 team (New Mexico) and lost by seven, so it’s hard to gauge how they would fare against some of the best teams in the country. The other concern? The frontcourt depth is pretty thin with three 6-foot-10 forwards in Jack Clark, Christian Fermin and Luke Bamgboye. They hold down the fort, but they aren’t going to blow anyone away down low with their scoring or rebounding.
Outlook: VCU’s guard play and defensive prowess scream that it’s a team that can upset a higher seed and make some noise in March. We just haven’t seen it happen on the court against the best of the best. That reality warrants cautious optimism, but man, it feels like Shulga is bound to hit a big shot to win a game.
—Sam Lance
BYU vs. VCU odds
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(Photo of Dallin Hall: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
