The Athletic has live coverage of 2025 Men’s March Madness
North Carolina is fresh off trouncing San Diego State in the First Four. Did that win alleviate any concerns about the Tar Heels’ spot in this NCAA Tournament? That’s a different argument, but the Tar Heels are favored against Ole Miss in Friday’s first-round game.
We’ve got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice.
How to watch Ole Miss vs. North Carolina
- What: South Regional, first round
- Venue: Fiserv Forum — Milwaukee
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Streaming: Max, March Madness Live app
- Watching in-person? Get tickets on StubHub.
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Projecting the bracket | Best picks to win the title
No. 6 Ole Miss
Strengths: The gents from Oxford have the ability to score in bunches. Yes, they ranked above No. 240 in effective field goal percentage offense over the regular season’s final month, but on a points per possession basis, they were significantly better (1.183). Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray are accurate marksmen who both shoot over 38 percent from distance. Malik Dia, Dre Davis and sixth man Jaemyn Brakefield are significant reasons why the Rebels are top-25 nationally in near proximity percentage, according to Haslametrics. Defensively, they thrive on applying pressure and traps. On the season, they forced an opponent turnover on over 20 percent of their possessions. Those mistakes often led to conversions in transition. Preferring a brisk pace, Beard’s experienced bunch aims to exhaust.
Weaknesses: Checking in at No. 329 in effective height, Ole Miss doesn’t exactly trot out dudes capable of reaching the top shelf. Its lack of size is a glaring flaw. Outmuscled repeatedly in the regular season, the Rebels ranked outside the top 225 in offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. As proven by Auburn, Memphis, Mississippi State and others, they can get destroyed on the glass. Also inadequate defending the perimeter over its final 10 games (39.4 3-point percentage allowed), they’re flammable in several unfortunate areas.
Outlook: As witnessed at previous stops, Beard is capable of invigorating teams widely perceived as average and guiding them to previously believed unreachable territory. This Ole Miss club, however, throws soft hands in the interior. Bullying frontcourts will brutalize it. That weakness and a crumbling perimeter D has the Rebels on upset alert. The advanced data sketches a grim picture.
—Brad Evans
No. 11 North Carolina
Strengths: Shifting into high gear and sprinting up the floor is North Carolina’s game. It’s a fast-paced and well-oiled offensive machine equipped with multiple engine-revving scorers. In their last nine regular-season games (7-2), the Tar Heels ranked No. 11 in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting 55.3 percent on 2-pointers and an outlandish 42.6 percent on 3s. On the season, RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, Drake Powell and Jae’Lyn Withers all netted at least 35 percent from distance. Also tenacious on the glass, UNC ranked inside the top 100 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage since February 1.
Weaknesses: Carolina’s defense couldn’t stop a toddler from scoring on a Little Tikes hoop. Its questionable rotations, wide driving lanes and general passive manner are why the Heels ranked a miserable No. 282 in effective field goal percentage defense over the regular season’s final month. Most horrendously, they allowed 39.3 percent on 3s during that span to rank a hideous No. 338 nationally. With no player over 6-foot-9 logging 40 percent of the team’s minutes, Michael Jordan U’s thin frontcourt can also be brutalized at times.
Outlook: North Carolina is more deserving of the NIT. Sure, it’s a brand name that has cranked out numerous legends over the years, but this mediocre bunch lacks the defense and height to compete beyond Round 1. There are better double-digit sleepers to advance bracket lines. As good as the Tar Heels are offensively, they simply have too many flaws in critical categories.
—Brad Evans
Ole Miss vs. North Carolina odds
(Photo of Elliot Cadeau: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
