Indian WellsWatch Saturday’s singles semi-finals from 1:30 p.m. PDT/4:30 p.m ET/9:30 p.m. CET
March 15, 2025
Peter Staples/ATP Tour
Carlos Alcaraz leads Jack Draper 3-1 in the pair’s Lexus ATP Head2Head series. By Sam Jacot
Semi-final Saturday has arrived at the BNP Paribas Open, where Carlos Alcaraz meets Jack Draper and Daniil Medvedev faces Holger Rune in Indian Wells.
Two-time defending champion Alcaraz has produced his best level in California in the past, capturing the title in 2023 and 2024. The 21-year-old, who is on a 16-match winning streak at the ATP Masters 1000, is aiming to become the youngest player to win three consecutive singles titles at any ATP Tour event — and just the third to do it at Indian Wells after Roger Federer (2004-06) and Novak Djokovic (2014-16).
The Spaniard has not dropped a set en route to his second tour-level semi-final of the season (Rotterdam title), defeating seeds Denis Shapovalov, Grigor Dimitrov and Francisco Cerundolo.
On Saturday afternoon, he will meet British lefty Draper following the conclusion of the first semi-final between Medvedev and Rune.
Six-time Masters 1000 champion Alcaraz takes a 3-1 Lexus ATP Head2Head series lead into his match against Draper, who defeated the Spaniard at The Queen’s Club last year. There will be plenty on the line when they step onto Stadium 1, with Alcaraz chasing a seventh Masters 1000 final and first at this level since 12 months ago in Indian Wells.
Semi-Final #2 Preview (2/2) 🎾🔥@jackdraper0 🆚 @carlosalcaraz – two players at their clinical best! 🎯
How do their #Insight scores this week compare to their 52-week average? 📊
✅ Both are leading the #ConversionScore leaderboard, but in different ways:
🔥 Draper is… pic.twitter.com/PaKRO3smxq— Tennis Insights (@tennis_insights) March 15, 2025
The Spaniard is aware of the challenge at hand.
“I think he has a lot of rhythm, a lot of pace, great shots,” said Alcaraz of Draper. “I think his style of play suits these conditions pretty well. I think his forehand with topspin bounces a lot, and he has a big serve. The times that I have played against him, I think two of them he got injured, and the last one recently in Australia.
“So I’m just excited about playing him again. It seems he’s in really good shape right now. I think he’s ambitious, and he always goes for it.”
Draper has been in red-hot form since returning from injury at the ATP 500 in Doha last month. The 23-year-old advanced to the title match in the Middle East and has not dropped a set en route to his first Masters 1000 semi-final in Indian Wells.
Draper, who dispatched Taylor Fritz in the fourth round and Ben Shelton in the quarters, will crack the Top 10 in the PIF ATP Rankings for the first time if he defeats Alcaraz and the Briton will rise to No. 7 on Monday if he lifts his third ATP Tour crown.
“Obviously it’s really exciting, all those things. I was thinking about those things when I was a kid, wanting to be in the Top 10 in the world and wanting to play in later rounds of huge competitions like this one,” Draper said. “So I don’t really set goals because I feel like I’m living my dream by playing on these stages.”
If Draper is to have a chance against Alcaraz he will need to serve well. The lefty won his first 25 points on first serve in his win over Fritz and made 72 per cent first serves, according to Infosys ATP Stats, in his straight sets win against Shelton. You have the feeling those numbers will need to be as high, if not higher, if he is to upset World No. 3 Alcaraz.
In the first semi-final of the day – not before 1:30 p.m. local time – two-time finalist Medvedev will aim to pour cold water on Rune’s resurgent run in the California desert.
Medvedev has advanced to the title match in Indian Wells in the past two seasons and arrived at this year’s event in need of a confidence-boosting run. The 29-year-old failed to win an ATP Tour title in 2024 and wobbled at the start of 2025. Having suffered a second-round exit at the Australian Open, his best result came at the ATP 250 event in Marseille, where he reached the semi-finals.
Semi Final #1 Preview (2/2)🎾🔥@holgerrune2003 🆚 @DaniilMedwed – a battle of elite defense!🛡️
How do their #Insight scores this week compare to their 52-week average?📊
✅ Medvedev’s rock-solid Backhand Defense – keeping over 80% of defensive shots in play on that side 🎯
— Tennis Insights (@tennis_insights) March 14, 2025
However, the World No. 6 has looked more like the Medvedev of old this fortnight. He earned a statement 6-4, 6-0 win against Tommy Paul in the fourth round and then dug deep to fend off Arthur Fils in a deciding-set tie-break. It was just the second time in 10 attempts that Medvedev has prevailed in a third-set breaker and he will hope that can give him confidence heading into his fourth Lexus ATP Head2Head clash with Rune (2-1).
“I lost a lot of tight matches this year where I could have won, should have won maybe. I have lost a lot of tight matches where it goes a little bit 50-50 and the more it goes like that, the more you can lose confidence in the tight moments,” Medvedev said after his win. “I was happy I was able to get over the line.”
Rune too has struggled at the start of the season, failing to record consecutive wins at tour-level events in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires and Acapulco in February. However, he reminded everyone what he was capable of in Indian Wells, where he captured a Top 10 win against Dubai champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fourth round.
Rune has played his usual brand of aggressive, clean-hitting tennis at the hard-court event but has also had a clear mind, with tactical tweaks helping him turn around matches against Ugo Humbert and Tallon Griekspoor this week.
“I have really tried to find solutions here because I think I was thinking back a little bit about the Humbert match that I played, also when things didn’t go my way, and I was down a break in the third. I’m very happy that I managed to find the solution against Tallon… I am happy I could stay composed,” Rune said after his quarter-final win.
The Dane won an ATP Masters 1000 title in Paris aged just 19 in 2022 and will be aiming to add to that tally over the weekend. Competing in his sixth Masters 1000 semi-final, Rune will once again try to conjure up the perfect game plan against Medvedev, who has been known as one of the sport’s great tactical minds in recent years.
Watch Saturday’s singles semi-finals from 1:30 p.m. PDT/4:30 p.m ET/9:30 p.m. CET.
Did You Know?
With Alcaraz, Draper and Rune in the semi-finals, it is the first ATP Masters 1000 or Major where three or more of the semi-finalists are born in the 2000s.
