Data: Indeed; Note: Seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average, excluding postal workers; DOGE targets include CFPB, USAID, EPA, USDA, NIH, FAA, Dept. of Energy and Dept. of Interior; Chart: Axios Visuals

Job applications from federal workers inside DOGE-targeted agencies have surged this year, according to data out Tuesday morning from Indeed, the jobs site.

Why it matters: This is a highly educated bunch, spread around the country — and they’re entering the job market at a time when hiring for those with advanced degrees has stalled out.

The big picture: The precise number of federal workers who will end up unemployed isn’t known — some firings are tied up in court. It’s still unclear what the broader impact on the economy could look like.

• There was a decline of 10,000 federal government jobs in February, per the jobs report. But more cuts are coming.

How they did it: Indeed looked at the profiles and resumes of those who are either still employed by the federal government or were recently working there.

• They compared their job search activity to 2022 levels. Back then, lots of federal employees were job hunting — along with many American workers, as the hiring market was hot.

By the numbers: This year, for most federal employees, applications aren’t back to that 2022 level yet.

• But the big exception is among those working at DOGE-targeted agencies like USAID, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the USDA.
• Applications from workers at these agencies spiked more than 75% above 2022 levels in February.

Anybody want to hire a horticulturalist? Searches for that term grew the fastest, per Indeed, likely because of USDA layoffs. “Employee relations” came in second — perhaps from all the fired people working in diversity, equity and inclusion.

Between the lines: Federal workers tend to be more educated than the workforce overall, and at DOGE-targeted agencies that’s even more true.

• 31.5% of federal workers have a Bachelor’s degree or higher, per Pew — but nearly 70% of the federal employees active on Indeed in February had a Bachelor’s or more.

Stunning stat: Two-thirds of employees at USAID held a master’s degree, doctorate or other advanced degree, per Pew — the most highly educated federal agency among those with at least 1,000 employees.

• Overall, job postings for roles with higher education requirements have fallen more than for those that don’t require advanced degrees, per Indeed’s data.

Zoom out: There are fewer opportunities right now that match these workers’ education and experience, says Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed.

• “That’s creating a friction in the labor market.”
• The risk is the job market won’t be able to absorb them all, he added.

What to watch: The March jobs report will be out next week.