The Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team will play No. 14-seeded UCF in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament on Wednesday.
UCF defeated Utah 87-72 in the first round. The Jayhawks swept the Knights in the regular season.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 6 seed Kansas vs. No. 14 seed UCF
When/where: 8:30 p.m., T-Mobile Center (Kansas City)
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 17-15
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 70
Betting line: Kansas is a 10.5-point favorite
Regular-season results: Kansas 91-87 (home), Kansas 99-48 (road)
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
UCF Strengths
- Decent offense: UCF ranks No. 59 in adjusted offensive efficiency (115.3). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the number of points scored per 100 possessions. KU ranks No. 50 in the same metric.
- Crash the glass: The Knights rank No. 91 in offensive rebounding percentage (32.7).
- Free throw makers: UCF ranks No. 23 in free-throw percentage (77.9%).
UCF Weaknesses
- Shooting issues: UCF ranks No. 281 in effective field goal percentage (48.7%).
- Struggles inside the arc: The Knights are shooting 48.2% on 2-pointers, ranking No. 288 overall.
- Defensive rebounding struggles: Opponents are averaging an offensive-rebounding percentage of 34% vs. UCF. That puts the Knights No. 340 in the nation.
UCF Name to Know
6-foot-7 junior guard Keyshawn Hall (No. 4)
UCF Knights guard Keyshawn Hall (4) goes to the basket against Kansas Jayhawks center Hunter Dickinson (1) during the first half at Addition Financial Arena on Jan. 5, 2025. Mike Watters Imagn Images
+ Quality scorer (18.5 PPG)
+ Good at the line (82% on free throws)
+ Good rebounder for his size (7.1 RPG)
– Not the most efficient scorer (shooting 42.5% from the field)
– Turnover prone (3 TPG)
– Not much of a passer (2 APG)
Game Prediction
This matchup is intriguing. The two squads played two games in the regular season, with KU destroying UCF in Orlando, then narrowly holding on for the victory at home.
The Jayhawks are by far the more talented squad, but UCF can score points quickly. That’s the biggest reason the second game was close: The Knights made 14 3-pointers.
Kansas has struggled to guard teams with quality perimeter shooting and UCF is a streaky shooting team.
The Jayhawks can’t get caught on ball screens like they did last game. Otherwise, the Knights have a window to steal the game. Luckily, KU will have guard Dajuan Harris for this game. So, the Jayhawks’ perimeter defense should be much better.
Also: Kansas must limit its fouls, as UCF makes 77.9% of its free throws — ranking No. 23 in the nation.
If Kansas can do these things on defense and keep the Knights off the offensive boards, the Jayhawks should win handily.
I like the Jayhawks to win and cover.
Kansas 78, UCF 67
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-10.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 24-7
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 18-13
KU Player to Watch: KJ Adams
Kansas forward KJ Adams is on an offensive tear of late. He’s averaging 15.7 points and 6.8 rebounds over the last four games. Those are well above his season averages of 9.1 points and 4.9 rebounds.
Naturally, he earned plenty of praise from Kansas coach Bill Self on Monday.
“He’s rebounded the ball better, his activity level defensively has been as good as it’s been,” Self said. “I actually think that he sees that the end is potentially near and probably has a different energy and a sense of urgency about it.
“He’s played really well. He’s done what he can do as well as anybody on our team has (played to their potential) from a skill standpoint. So I’m very happy with him.”
Adams returned from injury the last time these two squads played. Let’s see if he can sustain his level of play as the Jayhawks begin postseason play.
