When Shnaider has her game working, she’s an ultra-aggressive baseliner that can slap winners from any part of the court. And she looks to end points as quickly as possible. Does that remind you of someone? Maybe Jelena Ostapenko?

That’s right, part of this handicap is that Shnaider plays a little like a lefty version of the Latvian, and we know Ostapenko gives Swiatek fits. The reason for that is that Ostapenko looks to pummel every ball Swiatek sends her way, meaning the Pole has very little time to set points up the way she would against others. I think we’ll see a similar approach from Shnaider, who is one of the few players on the WTA Tour with the ability to play that way.

I ultimately expect the Pole to find a way to get the job done here, even if she can be rushed in Madrid’s quicker playing conditions. I just think she has a little too much polish and seasoning for Shnaider. But 5.5 games is a lot. Swiatek can win in straight sets and still fail to cover that number. And if the Russian does take a set, this should get home rather easily.

Pick: Shnaider +5.5 Games (-114)