Following Monday’s power outage in Madrid, there are still some fourth-round matches to be played on what was supposed to be quarterfinal Wednesday. It’s Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi and Grigor Dimitrov vs. Gabriel Diallo.
(16) Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Tiafoe and Arnaldi will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they collide during fourth-round action at the Mutua Madrid Open on Wednesday. Their only previous meeting came in the 2024 Wimbledon first round and it did not disappoint, with Tiafoe coming back from two sets down to prevail 6-7(5), 2-6, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3.
The rematch promises to be a fun one, as well. Neither man is in the midst of a spectacular season, but both seem to be turning things around on clay. Tiafoe finished runner-up in Houston (lost to Jenson Brooksby) and so far in Madrid has defeated Luciano Darderi and Alexandre Muller in straight sets. Arnaldi upset Novak Djokovic 6-3, 6-4 in addition to victories over Borna Coric and Damir Dzumhur. Although both guys are all-court players, clay gives the Italian his best chance in this matchup and it would be no surprise to see him capitalize against an opponent who remains well off his best level.
Pick: Arnaldi in 3
(15) Grigor Dimitrov vs. (LL) Gabriel Diallo
Diallo has parlayed a second lease on life at the Madrid Masters into one of the best tournaments of his young career. The 23-year-old Canadian fell to Coric in the final round of qualifying, but he got into the main draw when Yoshihito Nishioka withdrew. After dismissing Zizou Bergs, Diallo faced a fellow lucky loser instead of Carlos Alcaraz and got the best of Kamil Majchrzak 7-5, 4-6, 6-4. The former University of Kentucky standout then overcame Cameron Norrie 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 on Tuesday. Diallo now owns nine main-tour match wins in 2025, but he is just 15-12 lifetime on clay.
Up next for the world No. 78 on Wednesday is a first-ever contest against Dimitrov, who has been in fine form when healthy in 2025. In between all kinds of physical problems, the 33-year-old Bulgarian reached semifinals in Brisbane and Miami to go along with a quarterfinal showing in Monte-Carlo. He appears to be 100 percent in Madrid, with straight-set wins at the expense of Nicolas Jarry and Jake Fearnley. Barring another unforeseen injury, Dimitrov should have too much experience and general clay-court guile for an opponent who is not used to this kind of stage.
Pick: Dimitrov in 2
