Our NHL betting picks will look for Matthew Knies’ teammates to feed him and help him reach the 30-goal plateau tonight when the Red Wings visit the Maple Leafs.
Mike DiStefano • Betting Analyst
Apr 17, 2025 • 12:00 ET • 4 min read
The NHL wraps up the regular season with a seven-game slate tonight, including Game 82 for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who host the Detroit Red Wings at Scotiabank Arena.
The Buds reached a few milestones in their win over the Buffalo Sabres, but Matthew Knies can still reach 30 goals with a tally tonight, and my Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings predictions and NHL picks think the Leafs will try to make it happen on Thursday, April 17.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings prediction
My Leafs pick: Matthew Knies Over 0.5 points (-155 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs conclude the regular season tonight with a matchup against the Detroit Red Wings.
It’s a relatively meaningless game for both teams, as neither side has anything to play for, but there are still a couple of big milestones that could be achieved tonight. The milestone I’ll be betting on is Matthew Knies’ desire to reach 30 goals this season.
Unfortunately, the goals market is unavailable for tonight’s slate of NHL games due to the uncertainty of which players are active on the final night of the regular season, so we’ll bet on Knies’ points prop and take him to go Over 0.5 points tonight.
Knies has had a breakout season in his second full year with the Leafs, scoring 29 goals and 56 points playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. We saw Marner and Matthews achieve their big milestones the other night, so I’d expect them to feed Knies pucks all night to try and help him reach 30 goals.
Goaltending has been an issue in Detroit all season as the team has allowed 3.15 goals per game with a .897 team SV%. Over their last five games, the Detroit netminders have combined for a lowly .883 SV%.
Additionally, the Leafs power play has suddenly gone quiet, operating at just 7% in the month of April. I’d believe Toronto will be motivated to get a PPG tonight to bust the three-game slump. Fortunately for the Buds, the Wings have the league’s worst PK, operating at just 69% this season.
This presents another opportunity for Knies to bang in his 30th of the season or muster up a point of some kind as a net-front presence on the Leafs’ top power play unit.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings same-game parlay (SGP)
For the first leg of our SGP, we’ll mirror our best bet with a Knies anytime goal. He’s sitting at 29 and, as previously mentioned, I believe getting him to 30 goals will be a priority for him and his linemates tonight.
Next, we’ll take the Leafs on the moneyline. The Buds look to finish the regular season on a high note with their fifth straight win heading into the playoffs. Additionally, Toronto should be dressing a full lineup tonight due to cap constraints against a less-than-stellar Wings squad.
For the final leg of my SGP, let’s take the Under on the 6.5 goal total tonight. The Under is 13-7 combined between the Leafs and Wings over their last 10 games each. The Under is also 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings between the two teams.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings odds
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings live odds
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 | Detroit +1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto -133 | Detroit +118
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings trend
The Maple Leafs have hit the Under in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+12.85 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Red Wings
Location Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON Date Thursday, 4-17-2025 Puck drop 7:00 p.m. ET TV TSN4
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings latest injuries
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