Friday wraps up the workweek with a fantastic featured slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel, while Yahoo reaches forward to grab the 6:45 p.m. ET game. Today we’re breaking down MLB DFS picks using Stokastic’s industry-leading tools and MLB DFS projections to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, find the top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool likes the Arizona Diamondbacks at home against RHP Jake Irvin, along with Atlanta hosting RHP Lucas Giolito. The pitching is plentiful tonight, headlined by RHP Bryan Woo facing the Minnesota Twins in pitching-friendly T-Mobile Park and LHP David Peterson against the Colorado Rockies, who struggle on the road.
Mariners vs. Twins – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET$9,500 at DraftKings $10,600 at FanDuel
$52 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool likes RHP Bryan Woo in the best ballpark for pitchers against an injury-riddled Minnesota squad without Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner and Luke Keaschall, plus a dinged-up Harrison Bader.
Woo has been the most efficient pitcher in the league among qualified starters, averaging 14.12 pitches per inning. Of the 79 hurlers in this sample size, the least efficient tend to be the strikeout artists such as Freddy Peralta (17.55), MacKenzie Gordon (17.28), Chris Sale (17.20) and Dylan Cease (17.17), along with lesser talents who struggle to get outs like JP Sears (17.37) and Tyler Anderson (16.97).
Last year, Woo did not have enough innings to qualify, though he averaged 14.14 pitches per frame across his 121.1 innings. He has increased his strikeouts per nine innings from 7.49 last season to 8.48 this year, but with his apex salary, if he is not efficient tonight, he will have a tougher time paying off this salary.
The Mariners are all too aware of the various maladies that have caused Woo to miss time, so the team has been judicious with his workload. Last year he had three of his 22 starts where he recorded more than 90 pitches (92, 94 and 94), each of those outings coming in August and September.
This year, Woo had over 90 pitches in half of his 10 starts, though in the two games after he had a career-high 100 pitches on May 7, the team held him to 88 and 87 pitches, with 93 in his most recent appearance. Woo has eight quality starts, closing out the sixth inning in every game, but that is no guarantee for similar results tonight.
Buxton will likely return to action tonight or tomorrow, recovering from a collision with Carlos Correa on May 15 that landed each on the seven-day concussion injured list. Correa returned after the mandatory minimum, though Buxton has missed twice the time to date.
Assuming Buxton is in the lineup adds one more strikeout opportunity for Woo, though he is their best hitter. Since the start of last year, the projected lineup for Minnesota has a solid 20.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers while also producing above-average power. This, of course, is all baked into the 3.3 implied run total for the Twins and the over 5.5 strikeouts (-120) for Woo, but it goes to show that it is a fine line between failure and success at his current salary.
Mets vs. Rockies – 2.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET$9,000 at DraftKings $9,900 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
Tonight LHP David Peterson has an elevated salary, though unlike Woo, his is the product of a matchup against the crumbling Colorado offense. RHP Zach Eflin is at home against the Chicago White Sox and has a significant salary discount, but there is an elevated risk of precipitation in Baltimore, so while he is the best point-per-dollar play on the board, we may not see him in action tonight.
Since making his debut during the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, Peterson has still spent time in the minors each of the last four seasons, where he has crushed the opposition with a double-digit strikeout rate.
Through 10 starts this year, he has 8.38 per nine, which are up nearly one full strikeout over his 7.51 of last year. He also does a solid job of limiting home runs with his proclivity for inducing ground balls (51%).
It is no surprise that the Rockies have the worst offense in the league when they are away from Coors Field, but even neutralizing ballparks as a variable, Colorado has a league-low 56 wRC+ which also mirrors their 54 wRC+ against southpaws.
This advanced metric creates a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100, which means that the Rox are creating runs nearly 45% less efficiently than the average team would in the same situations. Yikes!
Colorado also has a 28.1% strikeout rate against lefties this year, which is the highest in the league, and the projected lineup has been even worse with a 28.9% rate since the start of last year. Peterson also had five quality starts in his 10 outings, including the last three, and anything less than that with half a dozen strikeouts tonight will be a major disappointment.
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves vs. Red Sox – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Lucas GiolitoDK Top Stack %: 6.5%
FD Top Stack %: 6.6%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool sees a target-rich environment tonight, highlighted by the slumping Orioles in Camden Yards against RHP Sean Burke. Unfortunately, weather may remove that game as a viable option, though the pivots are plentiful.
Atlanta is hosting the Boston Red Sox this weekend after bustling through Beantown two weeks ago. During their stay, it faced tonight’s BoSox starter RHP Lucas Giolito, saddling the erstwhile ace with six earned runs. In his last four starts, the soon-to-be 31-year-old allowed six “Ernies” twice, and in his debut five games ago, he gave up a pair of round-trippers to the Blue Jays in Toronto. Injuries kept Giolito out of The Show last year, but in 2023 he led the league in home runs allowed while playing for three different squads.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is back atop the lineup card, which leaves only the suspended Jurickson Profar out of the mix. Young catcher Drake Baldwin has impressed, and he should be in a prime slot with the platoon advantage against Giolito. Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley comprise the heart of the order, and with so many teams in action, it is not hard to find differentiation from secondary stacks on FanDuel or unique pitching combinations on DraftKings and Yahoo.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals – 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jake IrvinDK Top Stack %: 7.3%
FD Top Stack %: 7.8%
The Chase Field roof is slated to be closed for the rest of the homestand, but the Diamondbacks are very much in play against RHP Jake Irvin. In Los Angeles, the Dodgers are hosting the New York Yankees, who will be facing RHP Tony Gonsolin and his mediocre pitch portfolio.
It will be interesting to see which way The Masses will go between these teams for the four-game late slate, and each is in play for the featured tournaments as well.
Irvin has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals, making 68 starts since being called up in 2023. He has cut his walk rate from his initial season, but his strikeouts have slid to a 6.19 per nine this year while his home runs are holding steady at 1.32, which is not helpful considering he still allows 1.21 baserunners per nine innings, even with a low walk rate.
Arizona is a deep team with both power and speed, making this a dangerous lineup for pitchers who allow a lot of contact, aka balls in play. Left-handed hitters have had great success against Irvin, with the last 567 he has faced producing a .208 ISO. Corbin Carroll, Josh Naylor and Pavin Smith all possess light-tower power, and Ketel Marte is no slouch himself and expected to return from an illness that kept him out of action in the last game.
Eugenio Suarez has a ridiculous .308 ISO in 170 same-handed matchups this season, and he is always up for big moments. Switch-hitter Geraldo Perdomo is likely to be in the nine-hole, but he is an excellent late-slate differentiation option, adding synergy via a “wraparound” stack.
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take the Colorado Rockies +2.5 run line, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
If you are not a believer in LHP David Peterson, the Rockies are getting a solid +2.5 runs at a -120 rate. This works out to an expected 3.1% positive ROI, which is a steady rate for the long MLB season.
How to get the most out of your MLB DFS picks with Stokastic Sims!
