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The MLB-leading Detroit Tigers — yes, you read that right — face the defending American League Central champions, the Cleveland Guardians, in the first of a big four-game series Thursday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET, and both teams will send right-handers to the mound as Tanner Bibee gets the ball for Cleveland while Detroit counters with Jack Flaherty. Those interested in MLB betting who want to make picks on this Guardians-Tigers matchup at some of the top betting sites need to check out the latest odds and best bets from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. 

Pretty much everything’s gone Detroit’s way this season, which comes after the Tigers made a stunning late-season surge in 2024 en route to both a postseason appearance and a Wild Card Round victory over the Houston Astros. The Tigers are 33-17 and boast the fifth-best team ERA in baseball while their lineup, which was problematic at times last year, ranks fourth in runs scored with Javier Baez enjoying a career resurgence, Gleyber Torres offering some much-needed stability near the top of the lineup and former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson boasting an OPS just under .900. Flaherty was stellar for the Tigers last year and has been just alright for Detroit this season with a 4.44 ERA in nine starts. His strikeouts prop at DraftKings sportsbook is set at 5.5, with the Over at +125 and Under at -165. 

The Guardians are off to a solid 26-22 start, but unfortunately for them, the AL Central has been one of baseball’s best divisions with the Tigers at the top, the Minnesota Twins the hottest team in May and the Kansas City Royals just a hair better than Cleveland at 28-23. Second-year skipper Stephen Vogt’s team ranks 24th in runs scored and 20th in team ERA and has found itself in a lot of close games. Cleveland’s lineup is led by Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez, both of whom are OPSing over .800. Bibee has been solid with a 4.06 ERA in nine starts and his strikeouts prop at DraftKings is also set at 5.5, with the Over at +115 and Under at -145. 

Four sluggers in this game have at least 10 home runs this season, and they’re four of the five favorites to homer on Thursday. Detroit’s Kerry Carpenter, who has 10 homers, has the shortest odds at +425, and he’s extremely dangerous against right-handed pitching. His teammates, Riley Greene and Torkelson, are each +500 and have 12 long balls to their names. Cleveland’s Kyle Manzardo has launched 10 long balls and is +550. While he hasn’t homered 10 times, Ramirez is +500 to register that 10th home run, which is tied with Greene and Torkelson for the second-shortest odds in this game. 

The Tigers are -130 favorites (wager $130 to win $100) at home on the money line in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, and the Guardians are +110 underdogs (wager $100 to win $110). The total is 8 runs. You can get the model’s latest projections, along with expert picks for Guardians-Tigers, at SportsLine.

Here are the SportsLine model’s projections for Guardians-Tigers Thursday.

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS at DETROIT TIGERS | 5/22 | 6:40 p.m. ET

Money line

Pick: Tigers -130

Detroit wins in 57% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line

Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-195)

Cleveland covers in 67% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under

Pick: Over 8 (-105)

The Over hits in 46.9% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Projected score: Tigers 4.4, Guardians 4.2