With no more Frenchmen and no other Italians left in the draw, Lorenzo Musetti is the only remaining player with any kind of home-court advantage at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. But will be enough for him to beat a red-hot Alex de Minaur in the semifinals on Saturday?

This marks the third matchup between these two players and the head-head series is tied 1-1. De Minaur prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3 at the 2022 Australian Open before Musetti also came back from a set down to win 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 last summer at Queen’s Club.

Both of those were first-round affairs, but the stakes are much higher this time around with a spot in a Masters 1000 championship match on the line. It’s an especially big one for Musetti, who had never before advanced this far at a 1000-point event. The world No. 16’s stellar form dating back to last summer has continued in Monte-Carlo with victories over Bu Yunchaokete, Jiri Lehecka, Matteo Berrettini, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Whereas Musetti required a trio of three-setters to secure a place in the semis, De Minaur has absolutely cruised so far in the principality. The 10th-ranked Aussie dropped his opening set of the week, but since then he has destroyed Tomas Machac, Daniil Medvedev, and Grigor Dimitrov by set scores of 6-0, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, 6-0, 6-0. Dimitrov was obviously a shadow of his real self on Friday, but the bottom line is that De Minaur playing dominant tennis.It is true that clay favors Musetti, but De Minaur moves extremely well on this surface and movement is the most important part of his game. He doesn’t need overwhelming offensive weapons to have success on the red stuff. Moreover, the 26-year-old has been to a Masters 1000 semi once before (Toronto 2022) and crushed fellow Monte-Carlo semifinalist Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-1, 6-3 before finishing runner-up to Jannik Sinner.Musetti will probably be a lot more competitive than Medvedev and Dimitrov, but look for De Minaur to remain on a roll.

Pick: De Minaur in 2