Turns out that having all No. 1 seeds in the Final Four makes for pretty entertaining basketball.
As ridiculously good as the national semifinals were, no one will be pining to see Cinderella this late in the NCAA tournament next year.
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In the opening game of Saturday night’s Final Four doubleheader, Florida rode Walter Clayton Jr.’s torrid shooting and improved second-half interior defense to a come-from-behind victory over SEC rival Auburn. Then, in the nightcap, Houston held Duke to one field goal in the final 10 minutes, storming back from a 14-point deficit with eight minutes to go to deny Cooper Flagg a national title shot.
Those results leave two teams left standing. It will be Florida versus Houston for college basketball’s ultimate prize. Either Houston wins its first national title after a litany of near misses dating back to the 1960s, or Florida joins a list of nine men’s college basketball programs with three or more championships.
Below are four keys to who wins the game.
Will Florida or Houston cut down the nets in San Antonio on Monday night? (Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports)
It’s quite possible that Houston has already defeated the best team it will face in San Antonio, but the Cougars can’t call themselves champions yet. They’ll have to topple a second No. 1 seed, one with the most feared closer in college basketball and an array of talent and experience surrounding him.
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Historically, it has been hard for teams to follow an emotional Final Four win with another in the title game. North Carolina ended Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching career in 2022 … and then lost to Kansas two nights later. Wisconsin denied Kentucky an undefeated national title in 2015 … and then blew its own chance at a championship against Duke.
If there’s any program that might be immune to such a letdown, it’s Kelvin Sampson’s group of tough, relentless scrappers.
“We know what’s at stake,” Houston point guard Milos Uzan said Sunday. “The national championship game, that’s been our goal. Sometimes you can’t get too high on big wins like that. You’ve got to know what’s in front of you.”
Todd Golden calls Walter Clayton Jr. the best guard in college basketball, and it’s hard to argue. The tough-shot specialist has piled up an NCAA tournament-high 123 points in five victories so far, adding to his reputation as the most feared clutch scorer in the college game, the lethal shooter you can’t give a sliver of space in the final minutes of a tight game.
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Critically important for Houston will be to prevent Clayton from getting out in transition, where he is a threat to pull up from behind the arc or to attack the rim. Once Houston’s vaunted top-ranked defense is set, the Cougars have the ability to blitz ball screens, put bodies in driving lanes and try to make sure someone else beats them.
“The key is going to be the other guys stepping up and making enough plays to where they don’t feel comfortable doubling him every time,” Golden said Sunday. “If our bigs are able to hit a couple pick-and-pop threes in the middle of the floor, I think that will be very important, that might take away a little of their aggressiveness in the ball screen coverage.”
Golden didn’t hide his game plan on the eve of the title game. The Florida coach wants to run Houston sharpshooting guards L.J. Cryer, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp off the 3-point line and force them to beat the Gators another way.
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“They’re a unique team,” Golden said. “They don’t necessarily finish great from two. Their two-point field goal percentage is lower than you would expect for an elite team, but they shoot the ball great from the three.
“With L.J. and the rest of the perimeter, we have to do a good job of limiting their good 3-point attempts. Big-picture goal is going to be to make them take tough twos.”
Of course, against Houston, forcing a miss is only half the battle. Then Florida has to keep one of the nation’s top offensive rebounding teams from generating second-chance opportunities.
Said Golden, “If we can do a good job of keeping them off the boards, we’ll give ourselves a chance.”
For someone who has been Florida’s best big man for much of the season, sophomore forward Alex Condon has struggled during the NCAA tournament. He was barely playable in the first half against Auburn on Saturday as Johni Broome pushed him around in the paint for post position or offensive rebounds.
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Tentative and hesitant to look at the basket on Saturday, Condon finished with more turnovers (three) than points (one). He did have some redemptive moments down the stretch in the second half, drawing a key charging foul against Broome and blocking a shot.
It will be important for Florida to have Condon bounce back on Monday night. His interior defense and rebounding will be key for the Gators. They’ll also need him to initiate 4-on-3 opportunities when he sets a ball screen for Clayton and Houston sends two defenders at Florida’s star guard.
