It’s rare to find a player who’s been in the Top 30 that Djokovic hasn’t played, but such is the case with Arnaldi. The main reason is that the 24-year-old’s breakthrough season was one of Djokovic’s worst. Last year, Arnaldi reached the fourth round of Miami and made the semis in Canada, a tournament Djokovic skipped after winning his only title of 2024, Olympic gold. On dirt, Arnaldi got into the sweet 16 at Roland Garros, so his clay-court acumen is there.

But 2025 has been a comedown for the Italian, who is just 9-9. He’s also just 1-2 on clay, but his first-round win in Madrid was notable. First, it was 7-5 in the third, after a pair of three-set losses on clay; second, it was against Borna Coric, who has been winning plenty of late.

At this point for the 37-year-old Djokovic—just 12-6 this season—any relatively accomplished opponent should present some caution, and I think Arnaldi will give him a serious test. But Madrid’s faster clay should aid the Serbian’s game, and the fact that Roland Garros is right around the corner should see Novak more focused than ever this season. Winner: Djokovic—Ed McGrogan

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