The Astros find themselves facing a pitcher that can bring their offense to life, but Houston’s starting pitcher may not be able to prevent the San Diego Padres from keeping their hot start rolling as this matchup will heavily rely on the mound.
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
Apr 18, 2025 • 15:42 ET • 4 min read
The San Diego Padres continue to win, riding their offense to six wins in their last seven games. Their starting pitching remains suspect, however, and that may help the Houston Astros find some much-needed life at the plate.
Without further ado, let’s get into my Padres vs. Astros predictions and hand out some MLB picks for Friday, April 18.
Padres vs Astros prediction
My Padres vs Astros best bet: Over 9 (-115 at FanDuel)
Kyle Hart is a tough guy to read. He struggled throughout the higher levels of the minor-leagues, he struggled in the bigs last year, and after a good stint in Korea he had a bad spring and hasn’t looked much better through three starts in 2025.
The lefty’s big change was adding a sweeper which helped him turn into a strikeout arm in the KBO. And while he’s pitched to a .125 opponent batting average on the pitch, his 15.4% whiff rate just isn’t cutting it on his primary put-away pitch.
Hart’s struck out just 17.4% of batters this season next to a bad 10.9% walk rate, and remains susceptible to giving up homers just as he’s done for many years at all levels. Houston’s not exactly hitting for power at the moment, but it has the sixth-best strikeout rate against lefties in the early going with a great whiff rate against sweepers from southpaws.
It’s not like the Houston Astros are off to a blazing start at the dish, but this is a pitcher who’s yet to prove he’s worthy of pitching in the big leagues – and should aid Houston in its search for offense by serving up plenty of contact.
On the other side of this matchup, Ryan Gusto’s pitched just 12 innings at this level but has already replicated his profile from Triple-A a year ago. There, he had plenty of issues allowing home runs around an unassuming strikeout rate, and so far he’s posted a .407 Expected Slugging in 2025 with two home runs charged to his line.
Now, Gusto’s strikeout rate does look imposing at 31.9%, but he just faced one of the easiest teams to sit down in the Angels where he found six punchouts in four innings to weigh his numbers. This is a far different matchup against a San Diego Padres team which has struck out at the lowest clip in the league with a beastly .274 average to lead the bigs.
Gusto hasn’t faced an offense near this caliber yet at this level, and with his issues in suppressing power I can’t see him making it out of this one with a clean bill of health. On the other hand, I don’t think there’s any reason to trust Hart – who’s getting a bit too much love here after shutting down a bad Rockies lineup.
Padres vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
This is an excellent time to fade Gusto’s strikeout line after finding plenty of Ks against the Angels and San Francisco Giants. Neither of those two teams makes contact like the Padres, who sit in the bottom of the league in K-rate, and with the warning signs on contact we’ve seen develop across his starts in Triple-A last year and at this level in 2025, I think it could be a short outing for the youngster.
I’m just as sour on Hart, if not more, and the man we’re going to have to back here is Yordan Alvarez. I’ve been agonizing over the best way to do this, but I think an RBI is the best way to go. Alvarez is hitting an insane .363 off lefties since the start of last season and .301 off fly-ball pitchers to boot – and Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes both hold similar advantages in the splits ahead of him in the order.
There should be runners on for Alvarez, and there’s no doubt in my mind he’ll rack up at least one big hit.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Astros odds
Padres vs Astros live odds
Padres vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +110 | Houston -130
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-192) | Houston -1.5 (+158
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Padres vs Astros trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the first Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.45 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Astros.
How to watch Padres vs Astros and game info
Location Daikin Park, Houston, TX Date Friday, 4-18-2025 First pitch 8:10 p.m. ET TV Padres.TV, Space City Home Network Padres starting pitcher Kyle Hart
(2-0, 5.40 ERA) Astros starting pitcher Ryan Gusto
(1-1, 3.00 ERA)
Padres vs Astros latest injuries
Padres vs Astros weather
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