Su Mudaerji (16-7, 3-4 UFC) vs. Mitch Raposo (9-2, 0-1 UFC)
ODDS: Mudaerji (-185), Raposo (+154)
This should be an interesting matchup between two flawed flyweight prospects. Raposo has had an odd career since getting tabbed as a top prospect in 2021. He still has plenty of potential, but he has spent the last few years proving he’s just short of being a successful UFC-level flyweight, at least at the moment. A wrestler by trade, Raposo got turned back on both “The Ultimate Fighter” and Dana White’s Contender Series before earning his way to a late-notice debut in 2024 after a few wins on the regional scene. A look at those last few regional fights shows a fighter who has built out a much more complete game, as Raposo now gets most of his work done on the feet with a range-focused and patient striking approach. He now seems to be disconnected from focusing on his wrestling, and his UFC debut against Andre Lima left him in somewhat the same spot he was as a pure wrestler, needing a clear strength and power advantage to get the ball rolling while getting frozen out of his best weapons against better athletes. There are still signs for optimism, even if things have been rougher than expected for Raposo. That loss to Lima now looks a lot better with the unbeaten Brazilian’s subsequent success, and Raposo is young and inexperienced enough that there figures to be a point where things suddenly and completely click. An impressive showing here would be nice, even as Mudaerji also attempts to figure some things out.
The UFC’s first Tibetan fighter, Mudaerji didn’t pop as a prospect when the UFC picked him up as part of a new wave of Chinese talent, but he went on a surprising run against the lower levels of the UFC roster, putting together a three-fight winning streak by leaning on striking with his rangy frame. That hot streak came to an end in a 2022 “Fight of the Year” contender against Matt Schnell, but while being part of such a scrap raised Mudaerji’s profile, it didn’t result in much subsequent success. With the step up against ranked competition, “The Tibetan Eagle” has seen his effectiveness fall apart against opponents who don’t respect his size or power. It’s unclear which side of that fence Raposo falls on, as it’s easy to see him snapping back to his successful form against someone as reedy as Mudaerji, or he could just fall back on his recent game plan of trying to get things done from range—an approach that seems tailor-made to handle his Tibetan opponent an easy win. It might be out of hope, but the lean is that Raposo puts his foot on the gas pedal a bit more than he did against Lima. The pick is Raposo via decision.
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