The Atlanta Braves avoided a sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday night, and now they have a quick turnaround against a feisty Cincinnati Reds squad that is one game over .500 entering Monday’s series opener.
The Reds are in second place in the NL Central and have an impressive plus-34 run differential so far this season. The Braves, on the other hand, got off to a slow start and sit in fourth in the NL East.
On the bright side, they have won six of their last 10 games and have been winning at a high rate at home, going 9-5 in 14 contests.
As a result, the Braves are favored at Truist Park on Monday night with Cincy’s Brady Singer on the mound against Atlanta’s AJ Smith-Shawver.
Here’s a breakdown of this game, including the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Run Line
Moneyline
Total
Through four starts this season, Smith-Shawver has given up six, seven, six, and four hits, allowing 23 total in 19.0 innings of work.
On Monday, he’s set at just 4.5 hits allowed in the prop market against a Reds team that is in the top five in the league in batting average over the last 15 days and ninth overall in MLB in hits this season.
The advanced numbers for Smith-Shawver are extremely concerning this season, as he ranks in the sixth percentile in expected ERA, fifth percentile in expected batting average against, and ninth percentile in barrel percentage, per Statcast. I can’t trust him to keep this Reds offense in check on Monday.
Earlier today, I shared my best bet for this game in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers:
After a slow start to the 2025 season, the Atlanta Braves have picked things up recently, knocking off the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday night to avoid a sweep.
Over the last 15 days, the Braves are No. 11 in OPS, No. 11 in batting average and No. 10 in runs scored. During that same stretch, the Cincinnati Reds, their opponent on Monday, rank No. 7 in OPS, No. 5 in batting average and No. 2 in runs scored.
Could we be in line for a high-scoring affair on Monday?
I think we can, especially in the early innings with Brady Singer on the bump for the Reds and AJ Smith-Shawver toeing the rubber for the Braves.
This season, Singer has given up at least two runs in four of his six starts, and he ranks in just the 56th percentile in expected ERA, according to Statcast. On the Braves’ side, Smith-Shawver has allowed at least two earned runs in every outing, working through five innings twice.
He has an ERA north of 4.00 and is in just the sixth percentile in expected ERA. So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a strong Reds offense jump on him in the early going.
Pick: First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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