Elly De La Cruz is one of baseball’s most exciting young talents. As Chris Hatfield explains, he loves playing against and producing vs. the Braves, which is why he’s the subject of tonight’s best bet.
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
May 5, 2025 • 14:01 ET • 4 min read
The Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves open up an intriguing series this evening in the Peach State.
The Reds will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak after dropping a series over the weekend to the Washington Nationals. Meanwhile, the Braves will be looking to gain momentum after winning just one of their last four games.
My Reds vs Braves predictions break down the matchup as I present my MLB picks for Monday, May 5th.
Reds vs Braves prediction
My Reds vs Braves best bet: Elly De La Cruz 1+ RBI (165 at Caesars)
Playing the Atlanta Braves has usually elicited a special performance from Elly De La Cruz. I think this series could see a few of them.
Last season, he batted .400 with an OPS of .720 against them, and the year before it was .385 and .846. In addition, there were a couple of special moments against the Braves that helped build his stardom, like when he hit for the cycle during his rookie season in a wild 11-10 win.
Of course, this provides merely a footnote for why we’re taking him to record an RBI as our best bet. It’s about this evening’s matchup, which is a great one in a very favorable park for him at Truist Park. It certainly helps that I project about a 5% edge against this number as well.
As BatX notes, Cruz’s matchup tonight is more favorable than usual for a few specific reasons. Truist Park is the 6th-best venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats for lefties, and he’ll get to bat from his better side against AJ Smith-Shawver. That’s not the only reason he should fare well against him or be in a position to bring a run home.
Smith-Shawver has most of his success when he gets batters to chase and creates swings and misses. As a team overall, the Cincinnati Reds strike out at a decent clip, but that’s not necessarily the case for the top of their lineup.
Batting ahead of Cruz will be TJ Friedl, a lefty who chases at a rate in the bottom 20% of baseball and whiffs even less frequently. He also hits right-handed pitchers like Smith-Shawver pretty well. Next is Matt McClain, who has a very similar profile to Friedl. I expect Cruz to face Smith-Shawver at least twice, which means he stands a good chance of having one of those players on base when he’s up to bat.
As for the specific matchup, there’s a chance Cruz could get this RBI by simply hitting the ball out of the park. After all, in two plate appearances against him, he’s gone deep once (while recording an RBI in both appearances). Additionally, Smith-Shawver has had issues all season with giving up a high number of barrels, ranking in the bottom 10% of baseball in such stats. There aren’t many players in baseball who barrel up as many balls as Cruz on a regular basis. He’s in a great spot tonight against a team he loves to play against.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Reds vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Ell De La Cruz 1+ RBIReds moneyline
Over 8.5
We’re pairing the Reds to win here as the first part of our same-game parlay. My projections made Cincinnati around a +108 underdog, which gives us a sizable edge on the current number. The top of the Reds lineup is in a good position to chase Smith-Shawver from the game early, which could be the difference.
I also like the Over. We’ve talked a fair amount about Smith-Shawver, but Brady Singer will likely give up a few runs as well. His elite strikeout rate will enable him to go deeper into the game than his opposition, given the Braves’ plate discipline. However, the Atlanta team has hit the ball better lately, which can expose his hard-hit issues.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Braves odds
Reds vs Braves live odds
Reds vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati -167 | Atlanta +115
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-192) | Atlanta -1.5 (+131)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Reds vs Braves trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+6.40 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Braves.
How to watch Reds vs Braves and game info
Location Truist Park, Atlanta, GA Date Monday, 5-5-2025 First pitch 7:15 p.m. ET TV FanDuel Sports Network Ohio, FanDuel Sports Network South Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer
(4-1, 3.24 ERA) Braves starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver
(1-2, 4.26 ERA)
Reds vs Braves latest injuries
Reds vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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