Su Mudaerji and Mitch Raposo will face off in the UFC 314 prelims on Saturday, April 12.

Here’s my Mudaerji vs. Raposo prediction.

Su Mudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo Odds, Prediction

Flyweight Bout Odds Mudaerji Odds -170 Raposo Odds +140 Over/under rounds 2.5 (-190/+140) Projection: Mudaerji 60.6%

The “Tibetan Eagle” Su Mudaerji has considerable height and reach advantage (3″ taller, 8″ reach advantage) for this flyweight tilt against Mitch Raposo, in what amounts to a reasonably binary striker vs. grappler matchup.

Mudaerji (+2.8 strike differential per minute at distance) will try to stay on the outside and snipe Raposo, who will look to close the distance and put his opponent flat on the mat (67% takedown defense, 32% control rate for Su Mudaerji). S has struggled to both defend takedowns and get back to his feet against superior grapplers.

That said, he did show improved defensive grappling in his loss against Charles Johnson, after a near one-year layoff, and even attempted a couple of submissions of his own in that contest. Fighters implementing offensive submissions out of nowhere often indicate improved confidence in their defensive grappling abilities.

Outside of a submission victory, Raposo likely needs extended control time to win this fight; Mudaerji should land the more damaging strikes whenever they are standing.

I projected this fight to reach a decision around 65% of the time (-185 implied) and would bet the distance prop to -160.

I also show slight value on either fighter to win by decision (projected +162 for Mudaerji, +273 for Raposo). Given the damage optics, I would lean toward the former, but will likely pass on that market.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-136, 0.5) at FanDuel; bet to -160