The exact economic impact of the trade war the White House has launched is not clear yet — but it will probably roil the economy more than expected, slowing growth and driving prices up, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said Friday.

Officials will still need to take some time to assess how the Trump administration’s tariff policies will play out and how the central bank should respond, he said.

“While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected,” Powell said, speaking at a business journalism conference in Arlington, Virginia. “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”

He made the remarks after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs on Wednesday, including a 10 percent tax on most imported goods, plus an additional punitive import tax tailored for each of about 60 countries.

The intensifying trade war has sent global financial markets reeling as investors, companies and Americans fret about rising costs from an onslaught of new tariffs. Some Wall Street economists increased their expectations for a recession. JPMorgan Chase, for instance, said Thursday the risk of a recession in the global economy this year rose to 60 percent, up from 40 percent. Markets around the world continued their slide Friday.

Rising uncertainty over tariffs and their economic fallout has forced the Fed to hit pause on further rate cuts, leaving policymakers in wait-and-see mode as they assess the risks to growth and the labor market.

“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent,” Powell said Friday.

The Fed, he noted, has already stressed that it will be very difficult to assess the likely economic effects of higher tariffs until there is “greater certainty about the details, such as what will be tariffed, at what level and for what duration, and the extent of retaliation from our trading partners.”

He added that the Fed’s obligation is to “keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.”

Trump on Friday renewed his criticism of Powell on his Truth Social website, saying the Fed chief “is always late” and called on the central bank to cut borrowing rates.

“This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell to cut Interest Rates,” he wrote, while also accusing Powell of playing politics.

Laws and norms have traditionally protected the Fed from the executive branch, with the aim of demonstrating to global markets that U.S. monetary policy isn’t at the mercy of the political whims of the White House. But Trump has made clear he thinks he should get more of a say.

The situation is a difficult one for the Federal Reserve, which has a mandate to keep prices stable and maximize employment. Tariffs could lead to higher inflation, which would normally lead to higher rates. But a trade war could also hurt economic growth and spur job losses, which typically leads to lower rates. The Fed might have to choose which threat — inflation or job losses — is more pressing, economists say.

Powell has stressed it’s not his job to comment on specific White House policies but rather to make an assessment of their likely effects, observe the behavior of the economy and set monetary policy in a way that best achieves its dual mandate.

“We think we’re well positioned to address whatever may come,” he said Friday. “We’re just waiting for clarity about what our policy path should be.”

For months, Fed officials have generally cautioned that they’re in no rush to adjust their benchmark short-term rate, which trickles through the financial system to influence what millions of consumers and businesses pay to borrow money. It currently sits at 4.25 to 4.5 percent.

On Thursday, both Philip Jefferson, the Fed’s vice chairman, and Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, said in separate speeches that they wouldn’t be in a hurry to make further rate changes, amid a wave of trade and policy shifts under the Trump administration. In addition to trade policies, Trump has also pledged immigration crackdowns and fiscal policies that could weigh on the economy.

“The current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate,” Jefferson said at a conference hosted by the Atlanta Fed.

Fed officials broadly believe the trade war during Trump’s first term caused short-term price increases. But things get murkier as the effects compound throughout the economy. Powell noted last month that washing machines were tariffed during Trump’s first term, sending prices up. Dryers were not tariffed, but manufacturers decided to “follow the crowd,” and prices for those rose, too.

Some Fed officials, who have long said the road to getting inflation back to their 2 percent target could be bumpy, have already warned about the potential for “stagflation,” in which the economy experiences stagnant growth coupled with high inflation and unemployment.

“A deterioration of the labor market alongside higher inflation could present difficult choices,” Alberto Musalem, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said at an economics conference in Washington last month.

Even before the unveiling of Wednesday’s expansive new taxes on imports, anticipated tariffs were beginning to squeeze some smaller manufacturers that depend on components from abroad for the products that they produce domestically.

Glen Calder of Calder Brothers, in Taylors, South Carolina, said one of his suppliers had already implemented a 17 percent surcharge, effective Wednesday, for electronic displays used on the asphalt pavers that Calder’s company makes. The added cost is meant to defray most of any potential tariff for importing the electronics from Mexico.

Calder’s supplier has yet to rescind the added surcharge, even though Wednesday’s announcement excluded Canada and Mexico from new tariffs beyond those the administration has already imposed for autos. Meanwhile, Calder said he now faces 10 percent tariffs on engines sourced to Britain and a 20 percent tariff on axles, valves and electronics from the European Union. Generators from India will now require a 26 percent levy.

“This stuff is pretty specialized and people make it and ship to all over the world,” he said. “It’s not like you can stop buying it in Mexico and start buying it in Oklahoma. Nobody is making it here.”

To get ahead of the possibility of any retaliatory tariffs in Canada, Calder’s company sent three asphalt pavers and a truck that sprays asphalt emulsion to a dealer in Montreal a week ago.

“For a smaller business like ours, it was a good shipment,” he said. “Probably double what our dealer would normally take in one shot.”