With both sides possessing players who can score at will, the Over is the best bet in this title game.
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
Mar 16, 2025 • 10:55 ET • 4 min read
The American Athletic Conference will crown a champion this afternoon when UAB and Memphis face off at the Dickies Arena in Fort Worth.
My UAB vs Memphis predictions explain why attacking the total is the best path to profit as one of the final March Madness tickets gets punched.
Read all about it in my college basketball picks for March 16 below.
Who will win UAB vs Memphis?
The Memphis Tigers have shown they can find ways to win close games. They’re 11-1 on the season in such contests and already have a pair of one-possession victories in this tournament. That includes a one-point win over Tulane without Tyrese Hunter for much of the second half.
And while the UAB Blazers perform well on offense, they aren’t an elite outside shooting team and lack the offensive depth the Tigers possess. It was a major reason they lost at Memphis by 23 points and failed to cover by 16.
UAB was favored in the last meeting with Memphis, and lost at home by seven points. Even without Hunter, the Tigers will yet again cover and win the game.
UAB vs Memphis prediction
My best bet: Over 158.5 (-110 at bet365)
In its first two AAC Tournament games, Memphis played a Wichita State team ranked 101st in adjusted tempo, and a Tulane squad ranked 210th in adjusted tempo. The Tigers still scored at least 78 points in both games.
More concerning is they also gave up at least 77 points. And while UAB’s pace of play has slowed down of late — 81st on the season in tempo, but only 129th in its last 10 games — the offense is operating at a high-enough level we should see plenty of points on Sunday.
The Blazers are doing two things extremely well at the moment; taking care of the basketball, and grabbing offensive rebounds at an elite level. They rank seventh nationally over their last 10 games in offensive rebound rate and Top 5 in turnover rate during that same span. They’re also Top 10 in both metrics for the season while ranking 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency.
While UAB managed just 66 points against North Texas, it did so against a team that operates at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. In the previous game against ECU, the Blazers played a team that didn’t push the pace very well and still dropped 94 points.
The injury to Tyrese Hunter, who is unlikely to be available for the Tigers, has seen the total come down a few points. But his absence, while painful, doesn’t mean points won’t still be there for the taking.
The Tigers still swept the season series with UAB without him contributing much at the offensive end. In the two meetings, Hunter missed all seven of his attempts from outside the arc, and had just six assists to go with a total of 20 points.
In those two games, the lowest total we saw was 169 points. This was despite UAB not posting the best offensive rebounding performances, as the Blazers posted solid points per possession marks against the Memphis defense.
Memphis loves to push the tempo, ranking in the Top 20 in pace of play. The Tigers, much like the Blazers, do a great job of crashing the offensive glass, and they have an elite scorer in PJ Haggerty, who averaged 24 points in the two meetings and has scored 60 points over his two AAC Tournament contests.
With both teams having offensive players who can score almost at will, strong offensive rebounding metrics, and a history of playing in high-scoring affairs, I’ll back the Over here in what should be an exciting contest.
UAB vs Memphis same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 158.5Yaxel Lendeborg Over 0.5 threesPJ Haggerty Over 23.5 points
PJ Haggerty 5+ rebounds
Haggerty has only reached the 24-point mark twice in his last 11 games, but I expect he’ll be required to do so here if Memphis expects to win.
Carter hasn’t started a game this season, nor has Baraka Okojie, and one will do so with Hunter out. Haggerty will need to step up to help them out. He’s also gotten 10+ free throw attempts in his last four games, and his increased aggression at the rim will help him reach that total.
Haggerty’s also been attacking the glass with gusto. Those same four games have seen the guard average eight boards a game. In the first meeting with UAB, he grabbed six rebounds as well.
Lendeborg doesn’t shoot often from deep with just 60 attempts on the season, but he’s been quite accurate of late with a made trey in four straight games and seven of his last nine. He’s hit at almost 39% during that span, and he’ll knock one down against a Memphis defense ranked 246th in 3-point defense.
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UAB vs Memphis odds
UAB vs Memphis live odds
UAB vs Memphis opening odds
- Spread: UAB +4.5 | Memphis -4.5
- Moneyline: UAB +185 | Memphis -225
- Over/Under: Over 161 | Under 161
Odds courtesy of bet365
UAB vs Memphis betting trend to know
Memphis has hit the game total Over in eight of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for UAB vs. Memphis.
How to watch UAB vs Memphis
Location Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX Date Sunday, 3-16-2025 Tip-off 3:15 p.m. ET TV ESPN
UAB vs Memphis key injuries
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