The UFC has long been a proving ground where only the toughest survive. With new talent pipelines like Dana White’s Contender Series and free-agent signings (e.g., Bellator’s Patricio Pitbull), the promotion is swiftly replacing underperformers. Even veterans with winning records weren’t safe. Julio Arce, who had a record of 6 wins and 4 losses in the UFC, was released despite a knockout win in his last fight, likely due to repeated weight-miss issues.

UFC veteran Brad Tavares finds himself on the wrong side of that equation heading into his next fight. With four losses in his last five outings, the 37-year-old Hawaiian is in real danger of being cut from the promotion if he falls short against Gerald Meerschaert this weekend at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy.

Dana White

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Tavares, once a durable and respected contender, has seen his career take a sharp downturn. His recent performances have raised concerns about his ability to compete at the UFC level, particularly after a split decision loss to Jun Yong Park last October and a brutal knockout defeat against Gregory Rodrigues earlier in 2024. His only win in the past two years came against a fading Chris Weidman in 2023, a victory that now feels more like an outlier than a resurgence.

Once known for his sturdy chin and consistent striking, age and wear appear to be catching up with Tavares, who has been finished in three of his last five losses. His takedown defense—once a strength—has shown cracks, as seen in his most recent fight where Park controlled him on the ground in the final round.

His opponent, Gerald Meerschaert, is no easy out. Though inconsistent, Meerschaert remains a dangerous submission threat with a knack for late finishes. If Tavares struggles with grappling again, this could be a disastrous matchup for him. A loss would likely seal his fate, leaving the UFC with little reason to keep a 37-year-old fighter on a prolonged skid.

The UFC has been ruthless when it comes to cutting fighters who no longer hold ranking positions or significant drawing power. If he loses, he may find himself looking for opportunities outside the promotion. But if he wins, he could buy himself more time—even if his days as a contender are almost certainly over.

For Tavares, this isn’t just another fight. It’s a last chance to prove he still belongs in the UFC.