The PGA Tour’s Texas swing comes to an end this weekend, and when it’s over, it will be Masters Week.
That makes the Valero Texas Open the final opportunity for those headed to Augusta to tune up for the year’s first major. Not everyone is taking that opportunity — Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are among those not in the field — but there is still a handful of big names to watch this weekend at TPC San Antonio on Golf Channel, NBC and Peacock.
There’s $9.5 million total at stake. Here are the betting favorites to claim just over $1.7 million of that pool and roll into Georgia on the perfect note — as well as some wager ideas from NBCSports.com betting expert Brad Thomas:
Denny McCarthy, first-round leader: +4500
There are big prices in the first-round-leader market that I like, such as Beau Hossler (+8000) and Peter Malnati (+20000), which don’t stand a chance. Meanwhile, there’s a mid-range player like Mr. McCarthy, who makes a ton of sense to finish as a first-round leader.
Last season, McCarthy had one of the most epic finishes to force a playoff with Akshay Bhatia. He birdied No. 10, made par on 11, and then went on to make seven consecutive birdies, en route to a 28 on the back nine.
While McCarthy doesn’t have the length, when he is hitting fairways, he’s always a candidate to go low. That’s in larger part because of his flatstick. He’s one of the best putters on Tour. All he needs are greens in regulation to give himself a chance to go low. It’s highly unlikely he replicates the success he had last season. However, posting a 63 should give him confidence that he can do it again.
Rico Hoey, to win: +8000
Betting on Hoey to win a golf tournament is not for the faint of heart. There’s a reason why Hoey is +8000 to win. At +8000, oddsmakers are suggesting Hoey has a 1.2% probability to sport the black cowboy boots on Sunday evening.
I’d argue that the number is incorrect, and he is worthy of our consideration at this price.
Using a similar philosophy as last season, when I selected Akshay Bhatia to win this event, I want to find a golfer who could wedge this golf course to death.
TPC San Antonio does not have many attributes of which to build a model, but one stands out like a sore thumb. The approach distributions from 75-100 yards and 100-125 are far more common than the PGA Tour average. Hoey is in the top 10 from 100 yards in, and in the top 20 from 125 and in.
Hoey had an excellent T-11 finish last week at the Houston Open, despite losing strokes on approach. He typically gains week in and week out on approach, so a top 15 finish while losing strokes on approach is promising.
Another factor that drew me to wagering on Hoey was how impressive he’s been tee-to-green in his recent events. When Bhatia won this event last season, he gained 18 strokes tee-to-green. Here are Hoey’s previous four measured events T2G: +4.37, +2.1, +11.75, and +11.4.
Valero Texas Open odds (as of Tuesday afternoon, courtesy DraftKings):
- Ludvig Åberg: +1200
- Tommy Fleetwood: +1400
- Corey Conners: +1600
- Patrick Cantlay: +1800
- Jordan Spieth: +2200
- Hideki Matsuyama: +2200
- Akshay Bhatia: +2500
- Keegan Bradley: +2500
- Denny McCarthy: +2800
- Daniel Berger: +3000
- Si Woo Kim: +3500
- Tony Finau: +3500
- Keith Mitchell: +4000
- Tom Kim: +4000
