Peru reignited their Fifa World Cup 2026 qualification hopes last Friday with a 3-1 win over seventh-placed Bolivia, who La Bicolor can overtake in the only play-off spot with a victory on Wednesday (00:00) when they will face Venezuela at the Estadio Monumental de Maturin. La Vinotinto sit between Bolivia and Peru in the South American standings, just a point behind the former, but a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador last time out all but extinguished any faint hopes of automatic qualification, and the race is now on for seventh spot.
Below are my Venezuela vs Peru predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this 14th-round qualifier.
*odds correct at the time of publishing
Team News
Leon forward Jhonder Cadiz struck Venezuela’s consolation in Quito last Friday, scoring in the first minute of second-half stoppage time after replacing Pachuca striker Salomon Rondon half an hour previous. The 29-year-old will hope that strike is enough to earn him a start against the Peruvians, although it’s unlikely to be at the expense of his country’s all-time top goalscorer, Rondon, who has found the net three times in this qualification campaign.
Gleiker Mendoza (Angostura, on loan at Kryvbas) and Jesus Bueno (Philadelphia Union) will fear for their starting spots after being hooked at half-time against Ecuador. Yeferson Soteldo and Tomas Rincon (both Santos) replaced the duo in Quito and will come into Fernando Batista’s thinking for Venezuela’s final game until June 4.
Freddy Vargas (Netanya) came on in the 61st minute last week but was withdrawn 16 minutes later through injury, making him a major doubt for Wednesday’s contest.
- Venezuela winless in last nine qualifiers but unbeaten at home this campaign
- Peru yet to score or win away
- Venezuela have joint-best home defensive record
Peru head coach Oscar Ibanez could name an unchanged starting XI from the one that began last week’s win over Bolivia. Andy Polo (Universitario) and all-time leading goalscorer Paolo Guerrero (Alianza Lima) both got on the scoresheet in the first half in Lima and after Miguelito pulled one back for the visitors in the 58th minute, Edison Flores (Universitario) came off the bench to put the game beyond La Verde.
Flores may have to settle for the role of super sub again with fellow forwards Polo and Guerrero both scoring last Friday and another attacker, Bryan Reyna (CA Belgrano), setting up Peru’s opener at the Estadio Nacional.
Venezuela won two of their first four qualifiers but are now winless in their last nine, losing three of their last four, although they remain unbeaten on home soil. Wednesday’s hosts are therefore appropriately priced as 21/20 favourites, implying a 48.8% win probability, while Peru, who have also won twice this campaign but are without a victory on their travels, losing five of their six games away from Lima, are 5/2, or a 28.6% chance.
The reverse fixture at the Estadio Nacional in November 2023 saw the sides play out a 1-1 draw and you can back another stalemate between the pair at 2/1.
Both teams to score is priced at 6/5, over 2.5 total goals at 13/8, and a repeat of that 1-1 scoreline in the Peruvian capital at 5/1.
To Win to Nil – Venezuela @ 2/1
Venezuela are on a long run without a win in this qualification campaign but they’re yet to be beaten at home, drawing with Ecuador, Uruguay (both 0-0), Argentina and Brazil (both 1-1) in that unwanted nine-game streak. They also drew 1-1 in Peru which is one of just two points they have picked up on their travels (the first in a 1-1 draw with Brazil in October 2023).
A strong defence has been the foundation of their unbeaten home record and only Argentina (also two) have conceded as few goals as La Vinotinto on home soil. Argentina are also one of just two teams (the other being Brazil) to have breached Venezuela’s back line in Maturin, with Batista’s side keeping four clean sheets at home including in wins over Paraguay (1-0) and Chile (3-0).
Peru, meanwhile, are the only team yet to score away from home, firing blanks in their first six away qualifiers and conceding 10 times. La Bicolor began their travel matches with a goalless draw in Paraguay but have suffered five consecutive defeats now, losing to Chile, Bolivia (both 2-0), Ecuador (1-0), Brazil (4-0) and Argentina (1-0).
Last Friday’s win over Bolivia saw Peru end a three-game wait for a goal in style but La Verde have shipped 23 strikes away from home, at least eight more than any other nation in this qualification campaign, and a completely different challenge awaits in Maturin where the hosts will back themselves to keep a clean sheet and score at least once.
A win to nil looks the best play here at 2/1, which implies a 33.3% probability.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 – Over 42.5 @ 5/6
Venezuela have received 33 yellow cards across their first 13 qualifiers (2.5 per game), the most of any South American country, and four more than Peru (29, 2.2 per game), who are joint-third with Chile and Brazil in the caution standings. Both nations have also received one red card each.
The reverse fixture in Lima saw five yellow dished out, racking up 50 booking points as with Betfred a yellow amounts to 10.
The last three head-to-heads between these two countries have seen at least five cards and over 42.5 booking points awarded and with so much on the line in this game – just two points separate the sides with five rounds of fixtures remaining – I can see several cards being shown on Wednesday, and thus this line appeals greatly at 5/6.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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