H2H: 2-1
Ons Jabeur vs Jasmine Paolini is one of the hardest matches to call in the early rounds, but there are rewards for those willing to take a risk. The two have played thrice before with Jabeur getting the better of Paolini in two of them, but Paolini has the latest of the three matches. I’ve always believed that form is the most important thing in tennis and right now Jabeur is coming in with less confidence than Paolini. Both are 6-4 in their last ten, but Paolini 3-1 in her last four while Jabeur is 1-3. Paolini is also slightly better on hard courts over the last year, having gone 16-11 vs Jabeur’s 11-10 in the same span.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Jabeur winning even though much of it is considered a draw. I don’t agree with this one. I think Paolini is playing the better tennis right now and she also has to have gained confidence from her victory over Jabeur the last time they played. This will be the first hard court match between the two players and it’s for those reasons, I think it’s smart to err on the side of caution when approaching a toss-up of a match. Paolini is playing the better tennis, won the latest match between the two, and is the better hard court player.
That being said, Paolini winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Paolini winning @2.25 @betway
Krueger – Fernandez: Time 08:00
H2H: 2-1
This is another match where just a little bit of investigation can make you a decent chunk of change. If you knew nothing else about these two players other than their rankings, you might think Leylah Fernandez is the way to go. Though she’s the higher-ranked player, she’s coming into this match in poor form. She’s only won 5 of her last 10 including a loss to Ashlyn Kreuger in the quarterfinals of Abu Dhabi. Kreuger 3-1 in her last four matches and 6-4 in her last ten.
Best Bet to Make
The bookmakers say this one is a virtual toss-up, but I disagree. Kreuger is the better hard court player at 14-8 vs 10-7 with two recent wins over Fernandez and she’s playing better coming into this match. She’s also coming off a win over Elena Rybakina in the second round and a straight-set domination of Renata Zarazua in the opening match.
That being said, Kreuger winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kreuger winning @1.91 @betway
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Keys – Avenesyan: Time 08:00
H2H: 0-0
Given the shortage of competitive matches in the early going, prop bets are going to come into play if you’re looking for the same kind of value. One of the easier prop bets to feel good about is in the Madison Keys vs Elina Avenesyan match. Keys has gone an astonishing 18-2 on hard surfaces in 2025 while Avenesyan is 11-7. Keys is also 9-1 in her last ten with her only loss coming to the world’s no. 1 player Aryna Sabalenka, whom she also beat at the Australian Open during the aforementioned ten-match run. Keys is absolutely dominating.
Best Bet to Make
As far as prop bets go, Keys winning under 12.5 total games is sitting at +105 right now and I think it’s a pretty good bet. If we’re being fair, they’re offering value going the other way at under 12.5 games for -150 so you can feel fairly good about picking either one. I would personally take a chance on the under since Keys is absolutely locked in right now and playing some of her best-ever tennis. Alternatively, Avenesyan is 6-4 in her last ten with her most notable victory coming over Magdalena Frech at Mérida in the first round. If the under is too much for you, there’s value to be had if you think Avenesyan can push it to three or can pick one up in a tiebreak. It’s hard to go against the kind of tennis Keys is playing, if it were my money.
That being said, Keys winning under 12.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Keys under 12.5 games -150 @DraftKings
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
