The Baltimore Orioles host the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, April 18. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Ohio and MASN.
Find my Reds vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Tail This Pick at BetMGMReds vs Orioles Prediction
- Reds vs Orioles pick: Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 (-130)
My Reds vs Orioles best bet is the Orioles team total over 4.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Odds
Friday, April 18
7:05 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Reds OddsRun LineOver/UnderMoneyline+1.5
-140
9
-125o / +105u
+143
Orioles OddsRun LineOver/UnderMoneyline-1.5
+118
9
-125o / +105u
-170
Reds vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN)StatLHP Cade Povich (BAL)1-0W-L0-10.0fWAR (FanGraphs)0.41.80/4.50ERA /xERA3.60/4.964.80/4.21FIP / xFIP2.60/3.460.80WHIP1.8015.8K-BB%15.916.7GB%40.493Stuff+9598Location+108
Reds vs Orioles Preview & Predictions
Reds Betting Preview: A Rough Start on Offense
For a team that plays in a prolific hitters’ ballpark, it’s been a rough start offensively for the Cincinnati Reds.
The Reds come into this series opener ranked last in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. This amount of weak contact has resulted in a team batting average of .213.
However, there’s positive regression expected, as their team xBA is .230.
We should see some of that positive regression on Friday against Baltimore Orioles starter Cade Povich. Povich has been very fortunate that his box scores aren’t much worse, as he’s navigated a ton of traffic through his first three starts of the season.
Povich has surrendered 19 hits over 15 innings pitched, and the majority of them have been loud, as he ranks in the 13th percentile in hard-hit rate and 28th in average exit velocity allowed.
The one thing about Povich that’s been a double-edged sword is his command. He’s a strike thrower, and while that makes him efficient, it also makes him predictable, as guys can jump on him early in the count.
With the Reds having a number of hitters who have great splits against lefties, look Cincinnati to be aggressive against Povich and create some early offense.
Orioles Betting Preview: Expect a Scoring Surge From This Lineup
On the flip side, it’s more of the same, as the Orioles haven’t gotten off to the best of starts at the dish, hitting just .238 as a team.
However, the runs are going to come in bunches for this lineup, as it ranks in the top three in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
This team has consistently crushed the ball, but has yet to see results.
Well, that’s going to change on Friday, as Baltimore is in line to do damage against Reds starter Andrew Abbott.
This will be just the second start of the 2025 campaign for Abbott, but his first start of this year had a similar profile to many of the ones he made in 2024.
Abbott is fortunate; he doesn’t miss many bats and allows a great deal of barrels that aren’t ground balls, yet he ranked in the 86th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
While he was relatively unscathed in his first outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates, it’s clear the Orioles’ lineup is a big step up, and he gets them at the wrong time.
Not to mention, the help behind him is due to regress mightily. The Reds’ bullpen enters this matchup sixth in ERA at 3.06, but their collective FIP of 4.57 tells a much different story.
Look for the Orioles’ bats to continue their breakout after scoring six runs on Thursday against the Guardians.
Reds vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
The market is expecting plenty of fireworks in this matchup, with the total sitting at nine and juiced to the over.
While both teams should find success at the dish, the Orioles are in line for a big offensive day.
Like we went over above, Baltimore has yet to be rewarded for all of its quality contact at the dish, and on Friday, it faces a Reds staff that’s gotten away with giving up loud contact for too long.
Back the Orioles by taking them to go over their team total tonight.
Pick: Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 (-130)
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Moneyline
I certainly lean Baltimore if you’re comfortable laying the price, but the team total is a better option.
Run Line (Spread)
Taking the Orioles on the run line also correlates with them scoring a lot. With plus-money odds, this is an angle worth adding.
Over/Under
I also lean towards the over here, but I’m not confident enough in the Reds’ lineup to participate heavily on the scoreboard.
Reds vs Orioles Betting Trends
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